MLB Team News & Rumors: Arizona

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Our expert from,Shawn Childs, helps you prepare for your big fantasy baseball draft.

Arizona Diamondbacks Team Projection

Looking for a detailed analysis of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff?

1. SP Patrick Corbin

Patrick Corbin fantasy baseball

Corbin was an impact backend starter in 2013, going 9-0 in his first 11 starts of the year with a 2.06 ERA. Patrick allowed 2 runs or less in 17 of his first 21 starts (2.24 ERA) before fading over the last 2 months of the year (2-6 with a 6.05 ERA). Corbin was dominant against LH pitching (.203). In a way, Patrick overachieved his minor league resume (3.78 ERA with 404 K's in 430.7 innings). He has very good command (2.3) with a rising K rate (7.7), and his AFB (92.1) was stronger than his 2012 season (90.9). Corbin throws a slider as his #2 pitch, followed by a changeup. Overall, he only had one plus pitch in 2013 (slider - .132), which accounted for 129 of his K's. Batters hit .329 against his changeup (.586 SLG %), .277 against his sinker, and .258 against his four seam fastball. His velocity was stronger in August and September than April and May, so his lack of success may have been due to him pressing as he started to fade. Earlier during his minor league career, it appeared his changeup had more upside than his slider. Corbin had success last year due to move velocity, an improved slider, and an elite first pitch strike %. I don't think his early 2013 success is repeatable without further development of his changeup, so I'm expecting regression in his ERA and WHIP this year. His final stats will paint a better picture than 2014 value.

2. SP Wade Miley

Wade Miley fantasy baseball

Overall, Miley finished with a similar season to 2012, with the exception of the drop in his walk rate (2.9). Wade improved against RH batters (.259 - .270 in 2012), but he regressed against lefties (.272 - .200 in 2012). Miley pitched well in April (2.37 ERA), but lost his command in his last start of the month (7 walks). He was terrible in May (1-5 with a 7.34 ERA) and was easy to hit in June (.317 batting average against). Over the last 3 months of the year, he allowed 2 runs or less in 12 of his 17 starts (2.67 ERA). Without his bad month, Miley had a 2.78 ERA. In addition, hIs AFB (91.0) was a career high. His #2 pitch is a slider, followed by a solid changeup and a low level curveball. Wade had a career high GB rate (52.0%). While he had growth on the road (3.09 ERA), he struggled at home (4.01). So far during his career, his command (2.5) in the majors has been better than his minor league career (3.1). However, his K rate (6.5) remains short, but his minor league resume (7.0) offers short upside. Just like Corbin, Miley has pitched better at the major league level. Steady major league arm with not much more upside. His changeup had growth in 2013 which is a plus, but his walk rate does have some downside risk.

3. SP Trevor Cahill

Trevor Cahill fantasy baseball

Cahill looked like an improved pitcher over his first 9 starts (2.48 ERA), but his lack of command (28 walks in 58 innings - 4.3 walk rate) should have been a sign of future failure. Trevor was drilled in 6 of his next 7 starts (7.91 ERA) to crush fantasy players. As it turns out, Cahill had a hip issue that led to a shoulder problem (resulted in him missing 7 weeks of the season). When he returned, he allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of his 9 starts, but he did allow 26 walks in 48 innings (4.9 walk rate). His walk rate (4.0) was a career high, which led to a drop in his K rate (6.3). His AFB (89.3) was in line with his previous 2 seasons, but it did have a decline in velocity in May. His slider continues to gain value and it is now his #2 pitch, followed closely by his changeup and a curveball. Most of his trouble was against LH batters (.275). If you throw out his June (0-5 with 9.85 ERA), Trevor had an ERA under 3.22 in every other month of the season (2.80 ERA for those months). In 2010, Trevor posted an elite season (18-8 with a 2.97 ERA). Since then, he hasn't been able to repeat his command. His arm has upside when/if he does ever throw more strikes. I liked him heading into 2013 as I thought he was trending upward, but maybe he just wasn't healthy. Last year, he led the NL in wild pitches (17). His walk rate scares me to death, but his stuff is strong enough to make a huge step forward. I guess the key is a short leash in shallow leagues.

4. SP Brandon McCarthy

Brandon McCarthy fantasy baseball

McCarthy really struggled out of the gate last year (7.48 ERA in April). He started to find his rhythm in mid May (1 run in 23 innings) before developing a sore shoulder during his last start of the month. The injury ended up costing him 2 months of the season. When Brandon returned, he allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his 11 starts, but he allowed 76 hits in 68.3 innings with a short K rate (3.4) in September. For the year, he struggled with both RH (.310) and LH (.283) batters. His walk rate (1.4) remains elite, but his K rate (5.1) is declining. His AFB (90.8) was in line with his 2 previous seasons. He throws a cutter as his #2 pitch, followed by a curveball and a low level changeup. Furthermore, his GB rate (48.2%) was a career high. Earlier in his career, McCarthy was a FB pitcher. His FB rate (27.1%) was a career low and it was well below his career average (37.5%). Brandon also suffered a small seizure last season, which was a carry over effort from the head injury from the previous season. His command gives him some upside when healthy, but he does have a lot of injury history. McCarthy has pitched over 135 innings only once in the majors. Possible sub 3.75 ERA.

5. SP Bronson Arroyo

Bronson Arroyo fantasy baseball

Arroyo has pitched well in 4 of his last 5 seasons. However, he is probably the queen of the junk balls in the majors. His AFB (87.2) is one of the shortest in the game for a RH pitcher. Additionally, he throws a slow slider (75 mph) as his #2 pitch, followed by a slow changeup (77.5 mph) and an even slower curveball (71.9 mph). Bronson has struggled with HR's (317 allowed) for most of his career. His command (1.5) has been elite over the last 2 seasons, but his K rate (5.5) barely has a pulse. His stuff plays well against righties (.219) with a short SLG % (.350). He allowed 23 of his 32 HR's to LH batters (.295 with a .529 SLG %). Last year, he had an ERA of 3.26 after his first 21 starts. He was drilled 3 times against top playoff teams over his last 11 starts (St. Louis, Colorado, and Pittsburgh). On the year, he allowed 2 runs or less in 17 of his 32 starts. The move to the NL West may help him a bit when he plays on the west coast. Arroyo is what he is: a decent innings eater with some downside risk due to the HR's allowed and no potential for his K's to be an asset.

6. SP Archie Bradley

Archie Bradley fantasy baseball

Bradley has been tough to hit during his minor league career (.199), but his command (4.7) is still a couple of miles away from being an asset. Last year, he pitched better at both levels (High A - 1.26 ERA and AA - 1.97 ERA) in the minors than he did in 2012 (A Ball - 3.84 ERA). Archie is 26-11 during his minor league career with a 2.76 ERA. His K rate (9.9) is a plus, but it declined at AA, even with a lower walk rate (4.3) than his 2012 season (5.6). Bradley has a mid 90's fastball with a plus swing and miss curveball. His changeup should also have upside in the near future. Archie should start the year at AAA, and his high walk rate is this only thing holding him back from being an elite arm. However, the Diamondbacks will give him a shot at winning a starting job in spring training. His low strike throwing ability will lead to many short outings in the majors due to high pitch counts.

7. SP Randall Delgado

Randall Delgado fantasy baseball

His window to start probably closed when the Diamondbacks signed Bronson Arroyo. Delgado did a nice job of limiting the walks (1.8), but his K rate (6.1) also regressed. Randall really struggled with HR's over his last 11 starts (17 HR's in 62.7 innings - 2.4 per 9). While he only allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his 19 starts, he did only have 1 disaster start (6 runs). Delgado didn't dominate either RH (.268 and a .519 SLG %) or LH (.260 and a .466 SLG %) batters. As bad as he looked, he did pitch well at home (3.32 ERA - 1.1 HR/9), even with a short K rate (5.1). Randall allowed 16 HR's in 51.3 innings on the road (2.8 per game), which led to a 5.44 ERA. His AFB (91.7) was a career low, and he throws a changeup as his #2 pitch (followed by a show me curveball). Delgado is 29-47 during his minor league career with a 3.83 ERA and 677 K's in 646.3 innings. He has some talent, but it seems like he just finds ways to lose games. His high HR rate just proves he isn't ready to make the step up to be a starter in the majors. The Diamondbacks found a way to get him to throw more strikes and it helped his walk rate for sure, but the HR's and lack of K's hurt his upside. His command is the key and his HR's allowed will tell you all you need to know about his value. Possible spot starter in 2014.

8. CL Addison Reed

Addison Reed fantasy baseball

Reed converted 40 of 47 chances in 2013, however, his overall stats haven't been elite during his 2 seasons in the majors. His walk rate (2.9) was identical to his 2012 season, while his K rate (9.1) rose slightly. Addison had success against both RH (.220) and LH (.210) batters. Reed pitched well over the first 2 months of the season (1.96 ERA with 17 SV's), but his season started to go backwards on June 5th when the White Sox pushed him into his 3rd inning in an extra innings game. He allowed a grand slam in the 16th after allowing a run in the 15th. Later in the month, Reed allowed another crooked number (4 runs) to ruin his June (11 runs in 13 innings). Addison was great in July (3.60 ERA), but blew up again in September (7.88 ERA with huge walk rate {8.0}). His lack of dominance led to him being moved in the offseason. Reed is a FB pitcher (45.4%), while his AFB (92.8) was almost 2 mph lower than his previous 2 years. His #2 pitch is a slider, followed by a show me changeup. Addison had elite command (1.7) during his minor league career with a plus, plus K rate (12.9). Even with less velocity, his fastball was tougher to hit (.191). For Reed to be an impact reliever, he needs his slider (.271 BAA) to make a step forward (along with his command). Overall, his arm has been as electric as advertised.

9. RP J.J. Putz

J.J. Putz fantasy baseball

Putz struggled with an elbow and a finger injury in 2013, which led to him getting only 6 saves. His command (4.5) also took a huge step backwards, and his K rate (10.0) was less than his best seasons. J.J. owned RH batters (.131), but struggled with lefties (.290 with a .516 SLG %). His AFB (91.7) was a career low and it was more than 1 mph slower than his 2012 season. In terms of pitches, he throws a changeup as his #2 pitch, followed by a slider. Putz has 189 career saves, but his skill set is on the clear decline. He is expected to compete for the closing job, but his arm has some injury risk. Tough to trust him in 2014.

10. RP David Hernandez

David Hernandez fantasy baseball

Hernandez appeared to be closer worthy after his 2012 season, but he lost his edge when he allowed runs (7 total) in 4 outings over a 7 appearance stretch in the 2nd half of April. Furthermore, David struggled in June (7.11 ERA), July (6.75 ERA) and early August (15.43), which led to a trip to the minors. His command (3.5) regressed, which led to a huge spike in his HR/9 rate (1.4) and a decline in his K rate (9.5). He dominated RH batters (.170) and had success against lefties (.234), but they hit 8 HR's off of him in 121 at bats. His AFB (94.8) remains elite and was a career high in 2013. He throws a curveball as his #2 pitch, followed by a weak changeup. When he returned to the majors in September, he looked like the same elite pitcher from 2012 (0.64 ERA with 16 K's in 14 innings). Solid bullpen arm with upside if he can throw more strikes.


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