Week 16: PPR Watch
Caution - On the opposite side of the field, Heyward-Bey faces pretty much the exact opposite situation as the one for Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs' performance against the Packers was no fluke. After beginning the season giving up 40+ points to the Bills and Lions, it has been hard for many fantasy owners to set those games aside and think of Kansas City as a top passing defense. Make no mistake, that's exactly what they are. Over the past 5 games the Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to WRs, and that includes some pretty darn good passing offenses in Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New England (phew, what a schedule). Yes, Bey had a great game in week 15 -- catching 8 of 9 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown -- but I wouldn't want to have to start him against this defense in the week where Champions are made.
Caution - If you have to start him, take heart in that knowledge that he's run well lately, it is in Seattle, and Patrick Willis will likely still be out. So that said, I'd sit him. I don't care what he's done lately, I don't care where the Seahawks are playing or how well. He's not Adrian Peterson, he's not Foster or McCoy, and even if he was, there's a good chance I still wouldn't start him against San Francisco. There hasn't been a run defense like this in years. There may well have never been a run defense like this. Zero touchdowns allowed through 14 games. Never been done, and Seattle doesn't have an offensive line that's going to move them. Lynch scored twice against Chicago from short yardage, but he also averaged just 2.1 yards per carry on the night. I put a confident on him last week, and goal-line figures into it, but overall...I got lucky. Without the short scores, his stat line could have been a disaster. Beastmode had just 47 total yards and 2 catches in the first meeting with SF. Don't use him.
Sleeper - Last week everyone was scrambling to figure out who on the Packers would have the most value with Greg Jennings missing. Driver got the start, but Jones, Driver, and Cobb all got 4 targets. Driver caught a touchdown, but otherwise had just 2 catches for 7 yards total, Jones caught just 2 for 17. Cobb on the other hand, did the most with his opportunities, catching all 4 passes thrown his way for 53 yards. I think this will be another hard fought game for the Packers, with Rodgers looking a lot at Finley and his secondary options. I like Cobb this week as a desperation play in 14 team and up leagues, particularly if you give points for return yardage. The rookie seems safe for another 4 catch for 50 kind of day, and of course could always score with Rodgers throwing the ball around.