2012 Team Outlook: Jacksonville
QB Chad Henne, JAX - Low Potential
Henne was brought in as a veteran back up for Blaine Gabbert, with a chance to compete for the starting job. We have to assume the Jags will give Gabbert every chance to keep his job, so for now Henne is even more useless in the fantasy world than Gabbert.
Update 8-11-2012- Being the back-up QB on what might be the worst offense in the NFL isn't a great spot to be. Even as the starter, Henne isnt worth considering.
QB Blaine Gabbert, SF - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)
Gabbert was not very good at all during his rookie season; we are willing to blame some of that on the lack of playmakers at the receiver position. The Jaguars added two pieces that should help Gabbert -- rookie Justin Blackmon and free agent Laurent Robinson. While I think Gabbert should improve with those new weapons, I'm not sold on him and believe there are plenty of better options at QB. At best take him as a backup. He is worth drafting in dynasty leagues.
Update - 8-11-2012 - Gabbert's progression from last season hasn't been good enough to warrant being a draft pick in most leagues, maybe in a deep dynasty league. The Jags' offense will go nowhere without a happy and healthy MJD and right now there is no guarantee of that.
RB DuJuan Harris, SF - Low Potential
Similar thoughts to what was mentioned about Rashard Jennings: At best the change of pace option can be a handcuff to one of the best running backs in the league. He won't see much (if any) time as long as MJD is healthy and even if not, would he really get carries and would you really want to start him? I don't think so. Monitor Harris' depth chart slot should Jones-Drew's holdout become a regular season issue.
RB Rashad Jennings, --- - Fantasy Handcuff
Jennings missed all of 2011, but says he is fully healthy and ready to take back the backup duties for MJD. The Jags don't rely enough on their backups to rate Jennings as anything more than a handcuff (and maybe not even a good one). If MJD went down, you would really need to think about whether you would be willing to ever start Jennings. However, if a certain contract dispute keeps a certain star RB out of Jags camp, Jennings value (at least short term) moves up at least into the bye week filler range.
Update 8-11-2012 - Jennings should be moving up your draft board big time. If MJD's holdout lasts into the season then he will be the starter; even if MJD comes back right before the season, don't be surprised if he goes down with an injury leaving starter's duties in Jennings' hands.
RB Greg Jones, --- - Low Potential
Jones has become a full time blocker and is due $3.1 million this year, so there is a chance he doesn't make the roster. Even if he does, he isn't worth drafting.
Update 8-11-2012 - Jones is not worth owning. He might see a slight spike in goal line carries if MJD is out, otherwise he is not worth even looking at.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, --- - Stud (low risk)
STUD STUD STUD, that's all MJD is - not that it matters much if his contract issue lingers and lingers.Last season (despite playing in one of the worst offenses in the NFL), MJD was able to set career highs in rushing yards (1,606) while scoring 11 total TDs and catching 43 passes for 374 yards -- making him even more dangerous in PPR leagues. MJD is a top 12 fantasy player in any format, it's as simple as that, if he shows up, that is. Otherwise...well, let's see where we are by mid August or so...
Update 8-11-2012 - MJD is currently holding out and there has been no update about when this might end. If this hold out drags on much longer, MJD should drop down your draft board. Players who sit out most of camp in contract holdouts don't have great seasons, often getting injured. This is something to pay close attention to.