Week 4: Sit 'Em
Sit'em articles can vary widely across fantasy websites. Some weeks you might see consistency among experts and other weeks you might not find one match between articles. Sit'em picks are focused on selecting usually solid players that are not worth starting in any given week. Circumstances might include match-up, injury watch, RBBC approach, passing vs. rushing focus, past performance, etc.
Sit'ems include some tough calls. We all have doubts each week and have to consider our options. It is a difficult decision to sit your stud or solid player, but occaisonally you must in order to win that match-up.
Green-Ellis has seen a decreased number of rushing yards each week this campaign. He started in Week 1 with 91 yards, dropped to 75 and in Week 3 rushed for only 38 yards. The only save for his owners in Week 3 was his touchdown run. This week Cincinnati faces a Jacksonville offense that appears to be getting into the swing of things. Jones-Drew is back on his game and if Jacksonville jumps out in this one, Green-Ellis might have to play second fiddle to the air attack. Dalton and his wide outs are the focus of the offense and the slowed production of Green-Ellis is not a good indicator of his fantasy value. If he does not get the score each week and he sits at 30-50 yards with maybe a reception or two, his point values are much less than desired. Look for another 30-45 yard performance this week, but without the score.
It pains me to say it, but Chris Johnson is a sit'em candidate until further notice. Johnson has not rushed for more than 24 yards or gone for more than 51 yards from scrimmage yet this season. How many of us thought we would see this? Johnson owners have to be scrambling for another option at this point and the picking are likely slim. If you were lucky and picked up Andre Brown or made an early trade this season, good for you, but if not your RB roster is probably hurting after taking Johnson as a high draft pick. Some fantasy owners may hold out and maybe we will see a turnaround, but ouch. Three weeks of nominal points is a killer. Week 4 will be a match-up vs. Houston. Willis McGahee ran well vs. Pittsburgh and then Houston kept him fairly in check until he exited early in the third quarter. I think Johnson will be kept down again this week and we will see no more than 30 rushing yards.
Martin recorded 19 carries for 53 yards and just over 21 reception yards in Week 3 vs. Dallas. Martin appears to have a lock on the starting gig in Tampa Bay as Blount has received little attention, but his production has decreased each week as the season progresses. This week Tampa faces a tough Washington team with a super high-powered offense led by RG3. I think Tampa is going to find themselves working this game from behind and Martin's production in the running game is going to suffer as a consequence. Look for around 50 rushing yards at most with a few short receptions. I think Martin is going to have another week of less than double-digit fantasy points. Players like Stevan Ridley, Michael Bush (in place of Matt Forte again), Mikel Leshoure and Darren Sproles are likely to have better weeks than Martin.
Smith started the season well and then saw his job go up in smoke in Week 3. Mikel Leshoure returned to action this past week and Smith was relegated to third back duties, meaning not a touch. Joique Bell was Leshoure's back-up and this puts Smith on the backburner. I figure at this point he is a sit until further notice. Smith's average fantasy points of around 14 per week dramatically dropped to a projected 5 points for Week 4 and this could be an over-estimate. I think Leshoure and Bell will split time again this week and we will see little or nothing at all out of Smith unless there is an injury.
Amendola is the best receiving option in St. Louis and has proven himself worthy for fantasy owners to date. However, Seattle's defense has also proven themselves so far this season. He had a huge Week 2 vs. Washington, but slower weeks against Detroit and Chicago. Both these teams kept him to 5 receptions for between 60-70 yards and no score. This week is likely to be one of the slower weeks we see from Amendola. I think we will see those 4-5 solid receptions (which definitely count in PPR formats), but the yardage should only be 50-60 yards. I think Seattle has the ability to contain the wide outs. If you can sit Danny this week, consider it as an option. Guys like Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Eric Decker and Dez Bryant should have better weeks.