NFL - Vikings trade Harvin to Seahawks , Ravens trade Boldin to 49ers
LORD HAVE PERCY
The Minnesota Vikings traded away a key piece of their offense when they gave up Percy Harvin to the Seattle Seahawks. The deal is believed to net the Vikes a 2013 first round pick according to ESPN's sources. That's a hefty price tag, but we'll let the GMs worry themselves about draft pick value, team chemistry and a potential new contract for the former Florida Gator. Instead, we need to focus on fantasy impact.
Harvin is just as polarizing in fantasy circles as he was while with the Vikings. He bumped heads with coaches and even threw some negative comments toward his former quarterback Christian Ponder. Why you gotta be like that, Percy? Regardless, this should be a big deal to fantasy owners. Harvin was PPR dynamite, when healthy of course. In only nine games last year, he caught 62 balls out of 85 targets for 677 yards and three scores. Add rushing numbers (22 carries for 96 yards and a TD) and kick return stats (574 return yards and a TD), and this guy was an all-purpose phenom.
Some will argue that this is a blow to Harvin's fantasy value. I disagree and here's the reason: Seattle is a better team with a better quarterback. It helped that Harvin was really the Vikings' only threat at receiver, but the number to focus on is touchdowns and the player people are forgetting about is Adrian Peterson. When Minnesota was in the red zone, the ball was going to AP all day, hence the nickname. Harvin should see close to the same number of targets and will presumably haul just as many in as he did previously.
Most leagues don't count individual return yards, so even if he does not return kicks with the Seahawks, that return touchdown per season could easily be replaced by a more reliable production via receiving. Finally, let's not forget that Harvin was a Top 5 fantasy WR in PPR leagues prior to his injury and if you want him in 2013, you're going to need to grab him somewhere around pick No. 30.
Final verdict: Near-equal PPR value in 2013 with the potential to score more touchdowns, which could boost standard league value. May slide ever-so-slightly in some drafts because of persistent injury concerns.
49ERS MAKE BOLDIN MOVE
Not to be outdone, the San Francisco 49ers promptly plucked Anquan Boldin away from the Baltimore Ravens in exchange for a sixth-round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. The former Florida State receiver is in the final year of a four-year deal he signed before the 2010 season and is scheduled to earn $6 million in base salary.
The 49ers are unlikely to retain the services of Randy Moss and there is speculation they may also part with Mario Manningham. Either way, those gold diggers by the Bay had to add to their receiving corps with only Michael Crabtree offering any significant production at the position.
On paper, it was another ho-hum year for Boldin. He caught 65 passes out of 112 targets for 921 yards and four scores. What made it seem more stellar is how he performed in the postseason. If you prorate his playoff numbers (22 rec, 380 yards and four scores) to a full season, he'd be a Calvin Johnson reincarnation.
For fantasy owners, those playoff numbers look enticing, but the regular season stats should be a big red flag. With the 49ers' offense in mind, this should be a no-brainer: Boldin isn't worth much. At best, he should be considered a bench insurance policy if you so choose to draft based more on potential upside rather than proven production.
Last season, Boldin was on average a ninth-round pick according to Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP stats. The wide receivers taken before and after him (again, on average) were Justin Blackmon and Kenny Britt. These two guys are perfect counter-examples. Are you drafting boom-or-bust players in Round 9 with the higher ceiling or are you pursuing Boldin and his higher floor and lower ceiling? It strictly depends on your team needs. Boldin, even on a good day, is a flex option on a bye week. San Francisco will likely open it up more in 2013 with a full season of Colin Kaepernick at their disposal, but it's unrealistic to expect the former Ravens stud to produce like a regular fantasy starter.
If you need a safe bet, Boldin is a wise choice, but you can't assume the 49ers are going to really open it up. They are a smash-mouth team that's going to want to run the ball at least 25 times per game.
Final verdict: Remains a flex with starter-potential depending on matchup. Offensive identity in San Francisco very similar to Baltimore which suggests comparable production for aging player. Contract year provides some intrigue but little else.