ADP watch - undervalued
In this article we profile players that are not getting their just due based on average draft position (ADP). A few should benefit from a change of scenery (Carson Palmer and Chris Ivory), which we expect will breathe some life back into their fantasy value. We also like the chances for bounceback seasons from a few guys that have seen their value depressed by injury riddled 2012 seasons. Much like the stock market, buying low is the secret to fantasy success and the players mentioned below should offer solid value on draft day.
The 33 year old former Bengal / Raider signed a 3 year $26 million contract to be the QB for first year head coach Bruce Arians' vertical passing game. The redbirds could be a surprising passing game to target for fantasy purposes as WR Michael Floyd and TE Rob Housler find themselves on many sleeper lists. The ultimate beneficiary from Palmer's arrival will be Larry Fitzgerald, who looks to rebound from his worst season to date thanks to shoddy musical quarterback play. Palmer has a productive 2012 season in Black Hole tossing for 4,018 yards and 22 scores with a mediocre at best WR corps. Arians turned Andrew Luck and Reggie Wayne into solid fantasy lineup fixtures last season and should be able to do the same with Palmer this year, provided the weak O-line keeps him from getting decapitated (hopefully first round selection LG Jonathan Cooper makes an impact). Palmer has thrown for 4000 yards three times in his career and has six seasons with more than 20 TDs -- both marks seem very attainable in a pass happy offense with a future hall of fame WR at his disposal. Palmer could flirt with borderline QB1 status and makes for a great backup that can be had on the cheap based on his current ADP (around pick #140 overall).
Tony Romo tossed an alarming 13 INTs in the first seven games of 2012, but his 2nd half was a different story as he posted an elite 19 TD: 3 INT ratio in weeks week 9 to week 16. The Cowboys are committed to the former Mr. Jessica Simpson as they inked him to a six-year, $108 million extension through 2019, including $55 million guaranteed. In 2012, he set off career highs in attempts (648) and yards (4,903), but led the league in interceptions (19) and absorbed 36 sacks (also a career high). Romo has a bevy of talent at his disposal (Bryant, Austin, Witten) and the Cowboys added to their offensive arsenal with rookie additions WR Terrance Williams and a passing catching TE Gavin Escobar. The Dallas signal caller has been a top-nine fantasy quarterback in each of his last five healthy seasons. He should provide solid top 10 QB numbers proving the depth at the position and reason why waiting on selecting a QB is advisable. Based on his resume, the current ADP seems a bit low as he's the 12th QB coming off the board around pick #80 overall.
Injury concerns are a major red flag (played in just 24 games over first 3 seasons), but the Jets boast a solid O-line and will be one of the more run focused offenses whether they have Sanchize or rookie Geno Smith under center. The 25 year old has been stuck in a crowded Saints backfield, but posted an impressive career 5.1 YPC (256 carries for 1,307 yards and eight touchdowns). Ivory is a solid RB2 with RB1 upside if he's able to stay healthy. The 220 pound bruiser should dominate red zone carries and as an added bonus the Jets have the most favorable schedule for fantasy RBs. Be sure to monitor the hamstring injury that has limited Ivory in training camp, but the Jets' ground and pound offense is made for his skill set, making him a solid value based on his current ADP (RB25 - being selected in rounds 4/5).
The oft injured (missed 25 games during first 5 seasons) ultra talented dual threat RB enters a contract year with a lot to prove after another injury plagued season (missed 4 games in 2012) led to pedestrian production (216 carries for 707 yards and 2 TDs - on the plus side he had 42 catches for 258 yards). In 2010 he had his best production to date finishing with 223 carries for 1,157 yards and 47 catches for 507 yards. His explosive potential is evidenced by that fact that he averaged 5+ yards per carry in 2010 and 2011. The Raiders have a bottom five O-line, but will be transitioning from a zone blocking to a power scheme (which many think is a better fit for RUN DMC's skill set). Mcfadden enters this season at age 27 and makes for a solid RB2 target with RB1 upside that can be had in rounds 3/4.Securing DMC's handcuff is a must for those that roll the dice on his upside, so be sure to monitor the training camp battle between former Jag Rashad Jennings and rookie Latavius Murray (Central Florida).
The 2012 first round pick had a mediocre rookie year, finishing with 45 catches for 562 yards and just 2 TDs. It is worth noting that Floyd came on strong late last season, hauling in 14 catches for 213 yards and a touchdown in the final 2 weeks of the season. First year head coach Bruce Arians employs a downfield passing attack and Floyd should be a prime beneficiary as the 6'3 Notre Dame alum has the skill set to create mismatches with his size/speed combo. With Fitzgerald commanding double teams, Floyd should exploit single coverage with a competent NFL caliber QB under center in veteran Carson Palmer. Floyd has been starting ahead of Andre Roberts at the start of OTAs and seems likely to start across from Larry Fitzgerald in week 1. His current ADP is in rounds 11/12, making him a solid late round target with the upside to become an every week WR3.