ADP watch - overvalued
The PPR machine no longer calls Foxboro home. After averaging 120 receptions and 1,462 yards the past two years with New England, Welker took his considerable slot skills to Denver. The move made major headlines - and put Welker into a crowded situation. The 32-year-old might struggle to produce much more than lower tier WR2 numbers now that he'll share targets with formidable options Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Welker has topped 100 catches in five of the past six seasons, but something in the 75-80 range is a sincere possibility this year - and that's assuming he plays all 16 games. Currently his ADP is just outside the top-12 wide receivers - and just ahead of the man who replaced him in New England, Danny Amendola. Not only is that draft status high, I prefer the replacement.
It isn't often a tight end potentially (likely?) missing the first six games of the season via the PUP list remains No. 2 overall at his position behind Jimmy Graham. Obviously, "Gronk" is no ordinary option. Regardless, six weeks is six weeks, if it comes to that as the touchdown machine recovers from back surgery. Whenever Gronkowski steps on the field, he might not recognize those with him. So many from last year's receiving corps are elsewhere (or in the case of Aaron Hernandez, wearing an orange jumpsuit). Without Hernandez and Wes Welker around, Gronkowski will wear extra defenders with regularity, adding to his challenges. Though there's no doubting he's a difference maker (38 TDs over his first three seasons). This year, he's also the ultimate risk-reward, especially with an ADP that puts him into 4th/5th round range. Not peers when Gronk is healthy, but Vernon Davis, Jason Witten and perhaps Tony Gonzalez are better and certainly safer TE1 options. For those taking the risk, drafting a second tight end sooner than later is perhaps necessary. Doing so also adds to the cost of selecting a player in the early rounds who might not play during the early weeks of the regular season.