Winning guide to the $5 FFToolbox’s Mock Draft World Championship (Page 2)
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Winning guide to the $5 FFToolbox’s Mock Draft World Championship

Practice for your BIG draft like never before. Try our 5 minute mock draft.

OK, so now that you have a goal-oriented purpose, let's focus on "DraftMaster" or "best ball" strategy. As explained in the rules, your starting lineup will automatically be adjusted every week to optimize your scoring. So if your QB1 Aaron Rodgers scores 25 points and your QB2 Eli Manning scores 26 points, Manning would start for that week.

In the 10-teamer, I recommend having two QBs, five RBs, five WRs, two TEs, one DST and one K. The reason for no backups at DST & K is simply based upon having to deal with injuries and bye weeks. If one of your RBs goes down, you want extra options available at your flex spot. The scoring potential for a RB or WR is obviously much higher than a backup DST or K.

In the 12-teamer, I recommend having two QBs, six RBs, six WRs, two TEs, two DSTs and two Ks or you can pick up an extra backup at the skill positions and drop one of the backups at either DST or K. With 20 roster spots, I feel there is more room to roll the dice on a backup at DST and K. There's only so much that the No. 80 RB or No. 90 WR can do for you. You'd have to really nail your late-round selections for them to carry any weight or score enough points in any given week to earn a start.

In addition to having the right positional arrangement, you must understand that you won't be able to dip into the waiver wire to handpick replacement players. Your bench is all you have to fall back on. Think back to last season in Week 4 when Brian Hartline caught 12 passes for 253 yards and a touchdown. Some savvy fantasy owners may have added him after Week 2 when he caught nine balls for 111 yards. Unfortunately, in Week 3, he caught just one pass for 41 yards. You'd have to be some kind of fantasy savant to have started him after such a underwhelming Week 3 to capitalize on his breakout Week 4 performance. Players like Hartline though are a good indicator of scoring volatility by position. This is why you want those extra wide receivers. Every year, deep sleepers emerge and those are the players who will carry the winners to the big prizes.

Let's take a look at the top five players at quarterback using weekly scoring and let's include an extra column to include the week's leading scorer to illustrate how often even the best QBs would have been replaced in a best ball format. The purpose of this is to really drive home the point that even the best players do not put up great numbers every single week; therefore, you will want great backups. This makes every pick important.

I will use default ESPN standard scoring.

Brees

Rodgers

Brady

Newton

P. Manning

Leading QB

Wk 1

21

22

17

12

20

Ryan

Wk 2

19

10

14

25

7

Griffin

Wk 3

19

9

17

9

21

Roethlisberger

Wk 4

29

27

31

30

25

Brady

Wk 5

28

24

18

7

23

A. Smith

Wk 6

BYE

38

19

BYE

22

Rodgers

Wk 7

29

25

18

15

BYE

Freeman

Wk 8

14

13

28

11

24

Stafford

Wk 9

15

25

BYE

21

19

Palmer

Wk 10

21

BYE

17

13

14

Flacco

Wk 11

20

15

25

18

20

Schaub

Wk 12

18

10

30

37

17

Newton

Wk 13

3

14

11

28

19

Newton

Wk 14

14

13

27

36

14

Newton

Wk 15

29

24

24

17

12

Wilson

Wk 16

29

32

14

20

23

Rodgers

Wk 17

29

28

19

10

24

Brees

As you can see, only Newton and Rodgers led weekly scoring more than once. Newton went on one helluva tear from Weeks 12 to 14. Besides those five weeks between Newton and Rodgers, the remaining 12 weeks were led by 12 different quarterbacks.

Let's go deeper! Same five guys and let's see where they ranked each week and average it out.

Brees

Rodgers

Brady

Newton

P. Manning

Wk 1

5

4

11

21

9

Wk 2

11

26

20

3

29

Wk 3

11

23

15

24

10

Wk 4

3

4

1

2

5

Wk 1-4 avg

7.5

14.25

11.75

12.5

13.25

Wk 5

3

4

8

24

5

Wk 6

BYE

1

9

BYE

6

Wk 7

2

3

9

11

BYE

Wk 8

13

16

2

18

3

Wk 5-8 avg

6

6

7

17.67

4.67

Wk 9

14

2

BYE

4

7

Wk 10

6

BYE

12

19

18

Wk 11

7

12

4

10

6

Wk 12

10

22

2

1

12

Wk 9-12 avg

9.25

12

5.67

8.5

10.75

Wk 13

31

17

24

1

7

Wk 14

14

16

3

1

15

Wk 15

2

5

6

12

18

Wk 16

3

1

14

8

7

Wk 17

1

2

9

23

5

Wk 13-17 avg

10.2

8.2

11.2

9

10.4

Wk 1-17 avg

8.5

9.875

9.3125

11.375

10.125

What the heck can we ascertain from these numbers that applies to the 2013 season? Well, call me crazy, but if I draft Brees, I might just stick with him and call it a day. At least that would have worked pretty well last year. Excluding Brees' machine-like consistency, we see that quarterbacks enjoy wild swings in their performance. This also illustrates the benefit of really, and I mean, really waiting on a backup QB if you draft Brees or Rodgers for that matter. To his credit, Rodgers finished in the Top 5 nine different times, the most Top 5 finishes in the group. On the other hand, Newton may have had that nice three week run, but besides that, he just wasn't very good for a best ball format.

This leads us to my next point: understanding your players' limitations. Say you draft Brees early, you should wait until at least Rounds 12 or 13 before drafting a backup and more specifically, trying to find the best matchup during Brees' bye. Newton's high highs and low lows mean you might want to target a low-end QB1 like Andrew Luck or Tony Romo to offset the weekly risk. And don't forget, this is the quarterback position. They're scoring a ton of points every week. The point differential extremes only grow wider at other positions, i.e. a tight end in a standard scoring format.

As previously mentioned, bye week management cannot be overlooked. If three of your WRs are on the same bye, you might as well kiss that week goodbye because you might not even have enough players to field a full starting lineup once byes and injuries are factored in.

Rather than explain statistics to you since I'm no expert, I'll just tell you what I already know. Receivers' scoring outputs are more varied than running backs in standard leagues. In PPR leagues, this volatility tends to balance out.

First, focus on the red and blue lines because they represent RB and WR scoring in PPR formats. After the first few RBs, RB scoring declines far more rapidly than receivers. This means that if you choose to wait on RBs, you lose more potential points than if you wait on receivers. You want to load up on depth RBs early and take your depth WRs in the middle and later rounds.

Here are some final thoughts now that you've had a crash course on maximizing your draft…

- Be selective about reaching. It's fine to have opinions and preferring one player over another, but you're drafting against a computer and you get multiple opportunities to customize the experience. If you miss someone you really want, just reload the simulator and try again.

- Draft your DST and K one round earlier than the simulator if you really want one of the top options like Seattle DST or Matt Bryant. Just try to understand the preseason favorites at both positions very rarely end up atop the final rankings.

- The PPR draft has two flex spots. You should consider drafting at least a dozen RBs and WRs total since you will need seven starters between those two positions. TEs can fit in at flex as well, but they traditionally do not score more than RBs/WRs.

- I wasn't able to do it, but I bet if you do enough mocks you can end up with Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. If you have a ton of free time, give it a shot. If you're really crazy, you should try to get Jimmy Graham too! That'd be sick! This would be easiest in the standard 10-teamer. If you pull this off, email me a screenshot!

Good luck everybody and Draft Til you're Happy! Games Home

 
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