Last Man Standig: Week 6 final take
The stud that should play like one: Andrew Luck faces a Chargers defense allowing an average of 308 passing yards and two touchdowns per game.
The stud that could struggle: Russell Wilson. First, the Seahawks star hasn't topped 210 passing yards in his last four games. The Titans allow the third fewest points to fantasy quarterbacks. Granted the last two games were against Geno Smith and Alex Smith, but before that, Tennessee held Philip Rivers to 184 yards and one touchdown pass. Though he threw two touchdowns last week against the Colts, Wilson's legs have kept up his fantasy value. Tennessee allowed the two Smith's a combined 17 rush yards.
My favorite sleeper: Chad Henne. If Vegas is right and Denver covers or even sniffs a 27-point cover, the Jaguars will be in catch-up mode from the second quarter on. That means 40-50 passes --at a minimum -- for Henne. If Blaine Gabbert started for Jacksonville, no interest. As I wrote in this week's Strategy Session, Henne is aggressive in a Rex Grossman way, meaning he'll make plays for both teams. He'll also have Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts helping out.
Last minute waiver idea: This one goes out to Robert Griffin III owners who currently back up RG3 with say Carson Palmer or quarterbacks not as "productive" as Carson Palmer this season. Since the Redskins have had their bye, why not cut your backup and sign Kirk Cousins. Should anything go wrong over the next six weeks, Washington faces five of the NFL's statistically worst pass defenses. That's also why Palmer wouldn't enter the equation with RGIII active. . Later in the season there are matchups against the Giants and home versus Dallas in Week 16. Palmer should improve as the season progresses, but so should the Redskins offense.
The stud that should play like one: DeMarco Murray. The Redskins allow the third most points to fantasy runners, but the run defense has been better lately. However, let's note instead of Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden the previous two games they faced Joique Bell and Rashad Jennings. Before that, it was James Starks and not Eddie Lacy. That didn't work out well. The one true stud runner against Washington this season, LeSean McCoy went for 184 yards.
The stud that could struggle: Eddie Lacy. The dearth of fantasy RB options plus Green Bay's third ranked offense keeps the rookie in lineups. Johnathan Franklin stayed out of the Packers lineup last week while Lacy received all the work. Just don't expect and easy day for Lacy at Baltimore. The Ravens are tops against fantasy runners this season and Lacy isn't augmenting his ground game with pass catching.
My favorite sleeper: I wrote about Ronnie Hillman in this week's "Pickups" article. Basically, Broncos get up big, Broncos rest starters, Broncos run the ball. Hillman has moved past Montee Ball on the depth chart. Both backs have some appeal this week because of the potential for a high-scoring blowout. For Hillman, that means a worthy Flex option.
The stud that should play like one: A.J. Green. Fantasy owners haven't been happy with the Green the past few weeks. Expect those frowns to turn upside down after the Bengals face a Bills defense allowing the second most points to fantasy owners. If injured corner Stephen Gilmore might not have complete field day, but regardless it should be a highly productive one. ...Vernon Davis gets the TE nod against a Cardinals defense allowing the 30th most points to the position.
The stud that could struggle: Stevie Johnson hasn't exactly performed like a must start. Actually rookie Robert Woods has played more and been the primary receiving weapon in Buffalo. The issue for both is no E.J Manuel means who knows what. For all we know, Thad Lewis is the next Brian Hoyer. In his lone start last season at Pittsburgh, he completed 69 percent of his 32 throws for 204 yards with one touchdown and one interception. If you want to count on that, go for it. Factor in Lewis faces a stingy Bengals defense in his first start this season and neither Johnson nor Woods are even remotely close to a safe start. ...If you've used Kyle Rudolph at times this season, don't do that against a Panthers defense allowing the fewest points to fantasy tight ends.
Favorite sleeper: Jordan Reed. Despite missing around six quarters due to a quad injury, the rookie ranks fourth on the Redskins with 13 receptions. That might not sound like much, but Reed has 10 more receptions than opening game starter Fred Davis. The rookie practiced throughout the week and is ready for a matchup against a Dallas defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends this season. If I project Reed as a top-10 option in Week 6, that means I'm saying he'll have his best day as a pro. I'm saying he'll have his best game as a pro. ...Since I mentioned Ted Ginn Jr. on Thursday's podcast as a deep, deep sleeper, might as well double down here. This is more about more about a Vikings pass defense allowing the eighth most points to fantasy receivers, but Ginn's produced three straight weeks.