Week 13 Draft Kings Weekly Fantasy Football
By Michael Rathburn (@FantasyRath)
Who wants to be a "Fantasy Millionaire"?
If you read my debut column last week, you know I hit on the majority of the picks. The lineup I gave out was so-so, but overall the results were solid. I think coming back this week we can hit the picks and the lineup with the help of the new tool from FFToolbox called ASK MAX.
The DraftKings Fantasy Millionaire contest which is set to go off Week 16. You still have time to qualify each week on DraftKings, but your best shot is the EXCLUSIVE contest here at FF TOOLBOX that you can join here. For just $10 you have a shot to play for $1 Million Real Money Week 16 playing 1-Week Fantasy Football.
Here are some of the plays I'm recommending this week you can use on DraftKings based on their salaries and Toolbox's projections, along with my own Rath's Secret Sauce!
Tony Romo ($7700) vs. OAK (Thursday) - You know I was on Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and he gave tremendous ROI, so will throw in this Turkey Day play on Romo because it's the best on the board this week. Romo is a solid floor QB in 1-Week Fantasy Football and the Oakland D has allowed at least 20 Fantasy Points to opposing QBs over the past few weeks.
Josh McCown ($6400) vs. MIN - McCown had a great game last week and in this offense you have to go back to the well again especially against a weak Vikings pass D that has allowed opposing QBs to score at least 25 Fantasy points to QBs not named Eli Manning.
EJ Manuel ($5900) vs. ATL - Great upside play here in the DraftKings/FF Toolbox Fantasy Millionaire Qualifier this week because I think the floor for him is 15-18 fantasy points which opens up the opportunity to spend on other skill positions. Manual has been solid at home this year and the Falcons season is over.
Adrian Peterson ($8400) vs. Bears - If there is anything you want to call a lock this week; it's probably AP vs. one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. Peterson only had 11 FP last game vs. the Bears, but remember he had 26 carries on 100 yards rushing. I would expect a floor of 100 rushing yards, 1 TD, which is 19 pts, but the ceiling could be 150/2 TD (30 FP).
Andre Brown ($7300) vs. WAS - I loved the matchup for Brown last week, and the Skins did hold Gore in check on Monday Night, but they have allowed at least 19 FP to opposing RBs 7 times this year and I'll keep buying on those numbers.
Donald Brown ($3600) vs. TEN- Brown just had a great game against the Titans two weeks ago (14/80, 2 TD), with a floor of 10 and a ceiling of 20 he makes the perfect flex play as Trent Richardson is an afterthought and the Colts need a win desperately. This pick does come with risk, but I see the Colts bouncing back at home after last week's debacle.
AJ Green ($8600) vs. SD - Green is coming off his worst game of the season vs. Joe Haden, so you get him at a discount vs. a porous Chargers defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to WRs over the past five weeks.
Michael Floyd ($5900) vs. PHI - Floyd is coming off two solid games and gets a weak Eagles secondary, although they have been better defending the pass over the last five weeks. His salary is not fully reflecting his recent performance still giving him great value this week.
Kendall Wright ($6300) vs. IND- The most consistent fantasy football WR finally broke through and got a TD last week and I think more of the same this week. While Wright doesn't provide the huge ceiling, his floor is steady.
Charles Clay ($3900) vs. NYJ - Up until the past couple weeks, taking TEs vs. the Jets was an automatic, but digging into the numbers it's not like they have shutdown elite players at the position. While Clay has been inconsistent with his fantasy production, his snaps/targets are still there and he is poised to have a breakout game. 1-Week fantasy football is all about finding underlying data to extract value and at this price for Clay, its there in Week 13.
Jordan Cameron ($4100) vs. JAX - We saw Josh Gordon explode last week, and Cameron still got 10 targets last week, but only 3 receptions. Given the Jaguars horrible defense vs. opposing TEs, I'm willing to gamble on the upside.
Bills ($3300) vs. Falcons - The Bills have been a top 8 DST at home this year, and the Falcons are a mess especially on the road. Have to love the upside on the Bills this week and the price tag of just $3300.
Cowboys ($3500) vs. Raiders - While the Cowboys defense has been torched and decimated with injuries, they have been a top 5 DST at home and facing a rookie QB with a limited offense. While a lot of the points are tied into the 1st game of the season vs. the Giants, they have put up solid efforts against STL, WAS, and MIN.
Nick Folk ($3300) vs. Dolphins - Folk averages 3 FGs at home this year, and hasn't missed. With the Jets struggling to put the ball in the end zone, Folk will be relied upon as their best scoring opportunity. Also, this should be a close to the vest game and his salary is towards the bottom of the cap.
Nick Novak ($3300) vs. Bengals - Another Nick PK at home is the play here vs. the Bengals and you figure this will be a very close game. Great value on the kicker at home who doesn't miss very often.
ASK MAX 1.0 Lineup Maximizer (I built this lineup manually using the tools)
QB EJ Manuel ($5900) vs. ATL Projected Pts 18.5 Cost per Pt $318.92
RB Adrian Peterson ($8400) vs. CHI Projected Pts 25.7 Cost per Pt $326.85
RB Andre Brown ($7300) vs. WAS Projected Pts 17.9 Cost per Pt $407.82
WR AJ Green ($8600) vs. SD Projected Pts 24.2 Cost per Pt $355.37
WR Michael Floyd ($5900) vs. PHI Projected Pts 15.0 Cost per Pt $393.33
FLEX Donald Brown ($3600) vs. TEN Projected Pts 11.0 Cost per Pt $327.27
TE Charles Clay ($3900) vs. NYJ Projected Pts 11.3 Cost per Pt $345.13
DST Bills ($3300) vs. ATL Projected Pts 6.1 Cost per Pt $540.98
K Dan Carpenter ($3000) vs. ATL Projected Pts 8.8 Cost per Pt $340.91
Total Projected Points – 138.5