Mock Draft World Championship: ADP Focus
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With training camps in full swing and preseason games about to start, most savvy fantasy owners are getting a leg up on the competition by rocking out with their mock out. For those looking to complete multiple fantasy workouts per day, we suggest you kick the tires on the Mock Draft World Championship.
We'll be tracking ADP movement over the next month to identify players that are seeing their fantasy stocks rise and fall as Week 1 approaches. I recently ran the simulator with the sixth pick and what follows are a few outliers and my take on potential value picks and over-hyped players to avoid at their current price tags. This analysis includes my picks and some of the other teams' selections in order to address the full scope of ADP across an entire draft.
RB DeMarco Murray (Sim: 13, ADP: 22)
Murray's ADP remains too low, especially in PPR leagues as new OC Scott Linehan will utilize the RBs in the passing game. Dallas' porous defense will result in many shootouts, and Murray's receiving ability will be on full display weekly. He could flirt with top-five RB numbers in PPR leagues.
RB Eddie Lacy (Sim: 19, ADP: 10)
Lacy was the steal of the draft as most mocks have Lacy as a Top 5 pick. Lacy averaged 21 touches per game in his rookie season and will be the bell cow for an explosive offense. He caught 35 passes in his rookie season, and he should remain a three-down back with double-digit touchdown potential. Lacy had some durability concerns coming out of college so consider securing handcuff James Starks in the later rounds (averaged an impressive 5.55 YPC on 94 carries last season).
RB C.J. Spiller (Sim: 27, ADP: 38)
Reports have surfaced that Spiller could be traded before Week 1 (hard to believe since the Bills offense lacks playmakers). Buffalo traded for Bryce Brown this offseason and Fred Jackson remains on the roster with a recent contract extension. Spiller is best selected in Rounds 3 or 4 due to a likely split backfield and recurring injury woes. But he has the upside to be a RB1 (in 2012, he had 1,700 total yards with eight touchdowns).
WR Michael Crabtree (Sim: 31, ADP: 44)
Entering a contract year and reportedly 100-percent healthy (missed 11 games in 2013), Crabtree will look to perform close to his 2012 levels (85 catches for 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns). His ADP is likely to rise as training camps progress.
QB Aaron Rodgers (Sim: 32, ADP: 21)
All of the signal-callers appear to be undervalued based on ADP data, but the depth at the position makes waiting on a QB the best strategy unless you are in a two-QB league. Matt Ryan, Colin Kaepernick and RG3 are primed to have bounce-back years, and that trio is available in Rounds 6 and 7.
WR Cordarrelle Patterson (Sim: 44, ADP: 35)
His value could take a minor hit in PPR leagues as the Vikes will remain one of the most run-focused offenses in the league. The hype on CPatt is at full steam as offensive coordinator Norv Turner is rumored to be targeting multiple ways to get the ball in Patterson's hands. He had just 45 catches in his rookie season, but scored seven touchdowns (four through the air and three rushing). Drafting Patterson late in Round 4 is a much wiser proposition rather than reaching for him at the end of the third as his current ADP suggests.
RB Zac Stacy (Sim: 46, ADP: 39)
Job security is a concern for Stacy. The addition of rookie Tre Mason is contributing to a decline in the former Vanderbilt back's draft stock. The coaching staff has concerns with Mason's pass protection which should keep Stacy on the field enough for him to produce solid RB2 and borderline RB1 numbers in favorable matchups. A split backfield is a very real possibility as well.
TE Jordan Cameron (Sim: 52, ADP: 48)
Josh Gordon learns his fate on August 1st, and most are expecting a full year suspension. Cameron will become the de facto No. 1 receiving option and is coming off a 2012 season with 80 receptions and . He has a very real chance to finish his 4th NFL season as one of the top three most targeted tight ends. Cameron should finish as a top 5 TE especially in PPR formats despite the fact that he'll be the focal point of the pass defense with Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins sitting atop the WR depth chart.
RB Ray Rice (Sim: 61, ADP: 81)
Now that we know he's only getting a two-game suspension for his Chris Brown impersonation, Rice's fantasy stock is rising despite a down 2013. Those that don't land ball carriers in the early rounds should have the former Rutgers' back on their radars once round five begins especially in PPR leagues. Rice topped 55 catches for the fifth-straight season in 2013 (58 catches for 321 yards). From 2009 to 2012, Rice averaged 277 carries for 1,267 and 69 catches for 610 yards as one of the more productive backs in fantasy football.
WR Dwayne Bowe (Sim: 86, ADP: 118)
Bowe will be 30 when the 2014 season kicks off, and he has posted back-to-back mediocre seasons (averaging 58 catches for just under 750 yards four TDs). Andy Reid enters his second season in KC and is known for his reliance on the passing game (KC was league's 12th-most pass-heavy offense in 2013). I expect the Chiefs to pass more in 2014 as the run game could struggle following the loss of multiple key starters to the offensive line. The defense also sprung leaks in the second half of last season so expect less clock-killing and more catch-up mode play calling in the second half of games this season. Kansas City failed to bolster their receiving corps this offseason, which should make Bowe a solid value pick with a chance to see 100-plus targets in his eight NFL season.
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