Auction Strategy: 10 team, 13 roster spots with 8 starters

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Auction Strategy: 10 team, 13 roster spots with 8 starters

Dennis asks:
How would you adjust for a 10 team, 13 roster spots with 8 starters (no defense) using a $200 auction amount? Would it mean the values would decrease? In our league it seems the top 2-3 RBs go for around $80, top 3-4 QBs around $45-50 and top 2-3 WRs for around $40-45.

My answer:
Thanks for writing, I really enjoy all the feedback.

As for your question; yes, the values would decrease (assuming you are looking at 12 team cheat sheet). I know it seems weird, but think if there was just one team in your league. They would buy the best 12 players available (plus a K for $1) for an average of $16.6 ($199/12) per player, or way less than each of the top 12 players are valued at. Assuming two teams, they spend $398 on 24 position players, again for an average of $16.6 per player, even though the top 24 players are also all valued above 16.6 dollars. So, with fewer teams, values of all players have to be shifted down to account for the fact that the "pot" of all budgets of all owners is smaller.

For your 10 team league of 13 roster spots each, I'm gonna make a few quick assumptions. First is that everyone will spend $1 on their kicker, and the second is that your starting roster is QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K (no flex). If this is the case, then your 12 team sheet will be accounting for a pot of $2388 (2400-12 K), while your pot has only $1990. To find what each players true value should be, you have to multiply each players value by .8333 (1990/2388). This adjusts for your league size. I wouldn't worry about adjusting for a smaller roster size than usual, the fact that you don't play with a defense pretty much offsets any effect from the smaller roster (I think). Also, make sure the cheat sheet you're using has the first 156 players at a combined value of 2400 (or close to it). If it does not, then the cheat sheet you're using is flawed; you can let me know if you have any more questions about that.

Finally, I haven't participated in leagues with fewer than 12 teams but I am a firm believer that a player's value can change in any auction. Assuming you're the only team that adjust for player value, there's still 11 teams that will be overpaying for specific players. If (and I know it doesn't happen but if) the first 22 players nominated are RBs and you're waiting for RBs that are fairly priced, you will end up with the 23rd and 24th best RB, albeit at a value that is relatively cheaper. If people overpay, but not by too much for players at each position, you will end up with a poor starting lineup and a phenomenal bench. What I'm trying to say is that if most everyone is paying $10 over (according to your values) for a RB, it might not be a bad idea to get a RB that is only $4-6 overvalued. You're overpaying, but at a smaller increment than everyone else; i.e. you're still getting your player for a better value. So, getting back to your examples; I think $80 is WAY to much to be paying for an RB. Getting A-rodge for 45-50 might be OK (depending on how you think he'll do) but after that I wouldn't pay a dollar over 40 for any other QB. WRs seem a bit pricey too, but if you wanted to take Megatron for around $45 and Andre or Larry for close to $40 I think you'd be fine (obviously the players I'm picking are best in my opinion, if you think others will be top performers then go for it).

A couple basic guidelines I would follow when drafting...

  1. Calculate the true value of the players for your league, but realize most (if not all) other people will be using a cheat sheet with higher values. Do your best to draft players between what your values are, and what everyone else's are. (Somewhere between the 10 and 12 league values)
  2. Do NOT pay more money than the 12 team cheat sheet suggests, unless you truly think a player is badly valued. You will most likely already be overpaying a bit if drafting at values between the 10 and 12 team values (though not compared to everyone else), there will be better value later in the draft.
  3. For every single sleeper you have or player you want, do NOT nominate them. My guess is that people in your league will be overpaying at the beginning of the draft, especially if the old values you gave me stay true. Other owners will be running out of money later on in the draft while you still have a larger budget; the later they get nominated, the better chance you get them at a fair price.
  4. I know it may seem dumb, but before and during your draft talk about how you think players are undervalued, how X should be projected at a higher price, etc; you'd be surprised how effective it is. My personal favorite is to until an owner that got a top 5 player starts bidding on another top player- I then say something along the lines of "Holy shit, Mike's gonna have Arian Foster AND Aaron Rodgers on team? He's in the championship for sure!" Other owners will aggressively bid to try and prevent the owner from getting two superstars on his team, and they will inevitably overpay for the player in question.

Hope this helped,

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