Comments: 2014 Dynasty Rookie Draft: Over/Under Values
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Comments: 2014 Dynasty Rookie Draft: Over/Under Values

The differences of opinion before, during, and after a dynasty rookie draft are what make it one of the more unique experiences in fantasy football. In the redraft format, most rankings at least start off the same way through the Top 10. Depending on your team's needs and how you interpret immediate impact versus long-term potential, these factors categorically shake up dynasty rookie rankings.

Dynasty rookie drafts are already happening, so the average draft position (ADP) research and analysis can begin. Finding value is important here, especially after the first round. With that in mind, let's delve into which prospects are going too early or too late in rookie drafts.

(Note: The supplemental rookie data is from our dynasty friends at DynastyLeagueFootball.com)

Overvalued

RB Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers

Overall ADP: 61.83

Rookie Top 50 ranking: 11

Dynasty Top 100 ranking: 67

Rookie ADP: 10 (1.10)

Rookie RB ranking: 1

Dynasty RB ranking: 20


The predictions calling for the demise of RB Frank Gore's career have been around for a very long time. The 10-year vet had some injury issues many years ago and this prompted early calls for a potential breakdown or an early end to his career. Reality presents a different narrative. Gore actually hasn't missed a game since 2010. We've seen him wear down late in each of the past couple seasons, yet he still averages over four yards per carry while earning at least 250 carries in his last three years.

Where does this leave RB Carlos Hyde? Well, it leaves him out of the 49ers' immediate future and there's no guarantee he will be a workhorse. San Francisco still has RBs Kendall Hunter, Marcus Lattimore and LaMichael James on their roster. James may be trade bait; however, Hunter and Lattimore will earn their opportunities as well. Unless your team is desperate for RBs, Hyde is a reach in the first round, especially with some other backs (who will be named later) possessing faster pathways onto the field.

WR Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Overall ADP: 75.67

Rookie Top 50 ranking: 9

Dynasty Top 100 ranking: 96

Rookie ADP: 9.5 (1.09)

Rookie WR ranking: 8

Dynasty WR ranking: 48


The Jaguars draft two WRs (Marqise Lee and Robinson) and both guys are Top 10 picks in rookie drafts? This is still the Jags we're talking about, right? Jacksonville already has WRs Cecil Shorts and Ace Sanders. Shorts is better suited to be a No. 2 WR, but the larger point is he has already established himself as a capable pro and fantasy contributor. Two unproven rookies aren't going to simply blow him out of the water and into relevancy. Furthermore, Sanders quietly had a pretty good season and fits nicely as an excellent slot receiver. He can line up just about anywhere in order to create mismatches.

Robinson not only would have to beat out Shorts and Sanders, he'll be competing with Lee for playing time this year. Since the Jaguars drafted Lee ahead of Robinson, it's safe to assume Lee has the inside track. Both rookies are talented and deserved praise prior to the NFL draft. Now that they're on the same team, both will have to be very special to gain traction over the other plus Shorts and Sanders. If Jacksonville wielded a more formidable offense, Robinson's draft position would make more sense.

RB Lache Seastrunk, Washington Redskins

Overall ADP: 145.33

Rookie Top 50 ranking: 25

Dynasty Top 100 ranking: N/A

Rookie ADP: 27 (3.03)

Rookie RB ranking: 9

Dynasty RB ranking: 47


There was a lot to like about Seastrunk in college. He was explosive and dynamic for the Baylor Bears. For whatever reason, in evaluations, the game tape didn't match the measurables. Many now view Seastrunk's contributions as part of Baylor's statistically prolific offense. Because of that, he tumbled all the way to the sixth round. Ahead of him on the depth chart are RBs Alfred Morris, Roy Helu, Evan Royster and Chris Thompson. Washington has now drafted a RB in four straight years.

The only advantage here is that Seastrunk is "his guy" for new head coach Jay Gruden since the rest of the backs were simply inherited. There are typically still a couple backs on the board after Seastrunk's selection with a better chance at instant impact.

Undervalued

RB Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings

Overall ADP: 183.00

Rookie Top 50 ranking: 40

Dynasty Top 100 ranking: N/A

Rookie ADP: 35 (3.11)

Rookie RB ranking: 13

Dynasty RB ranking: 78


This former Georgia Southern QB isn't as much of a project as you might think. GSU runs an almost exclusively rush-heavy attack. McKinnon rushed for 3,899 yards and 42 TDs in his collegiate career. Behind RB Adrian Peterson, the Vikings have no proven commodities. The "overvalued" Seastrunk went in the sixth, while McKinnon was a third round pick. At the very least, the Vikings are committing resources.

Uprooting Peterson obviously won't happen in the short-term; however, injuries can happen at any time. The Vikings are very high on McKinnon as evidenced by their commitment to him in the third. He will have every opportunity to see the field as a part-time, change-of-pace weapon right off the bat.

RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, Baltimore

Overall ADP: 235.17

Rookie Top 50 ranking: N/A

Dynasty Top 100 ranking: N/A

Rookie ADP: 40 (4.04)

Rookie RB ranking: 15

Dynasty RB ranking: N/A


There's already some hype circulating for Taliaferro. The RB situation in Baltimore merits it. Some of the blame for the Ravens' ineffective ground game is on the offensive line; however, it takes two to tango. RB Ray Rice fell off a cliff statistically and RB Bernard Pierce is questionable for the start of training camp due to a shoulder injury. There were also news reports recently saying the franchise wanted to add another back this offseason before Rice's off-the-field drama.

Taliaferro is being drafted as if he has no shot at the field. He could see first-team reps as soon as training camp if the NFL drops the hammer on Rice. While this may not translate to RB1 upside in the long-term, Taliaferro certainly isn't being drafted like a back who could earn change-of-pace carries this year. The fourth-round pick did get into some trouble recently (arrested for drunk in public), but as we all know about the NFL, these sorts of things seem to happen all the time. For now, he remains an intriguing flier for rookie drafts.

WR Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers

Overall ADP: 97.17

Rookie Top 50 ranking: 12

Dynasty Top 100 ranking: 93

Rookie ADP: 11 (1.11)

Rookie WR ranking: 10

Dynasty WR ranking: 56


If given a thesaurus, there still might not be enough negative words used to describe Carolina's WR depth chart. Anchored by veteran WRs Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant, you have to give props to whatever QB Cam Newton is able to do with this group. The future relies firmly on Benjamin, their first round pick. The reason he is falling in drafts is because there were concerns regarding his speed and therefore his inability to gain separation. There are concerns about him being raw and not having great route-running abilities. That may all be true and valid. The bottom line is that no WR, not even Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans, has a better opportunity to be their team's No. 1 WR by the end of training camp. The Panthers have nobody and it's entirely possible Benjamin leapfrogs the whole group of them.

It's easy to forget that before scouts starting picking apart his athleticism and raw skills, Benjamin was a key playmaker for the Seminoles. In his final six games (which includes the National Championship), Benjamin had 10 TDs. Passing on him due to the belief he lacks superior talent is a valid concern, but what is invalid would be a belief he will not have an immediate opportunity to play.


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