Is 50 catches, 800 yards a realistic expectation for Giants rookie WR Odell Beckham?


Is 50 catches, 800 yards a realistic expectation for Giants rookie WR Odell Beckham?

Jordan Raanan of the Newark Star-Ledger posted an article Thursday in which he tries to come up with a realistic statistical expectation for Giants first-round wideout Odell Beckham @OBJ_3 in his rookie season. He quotes head coach Tom Coughlin, who says all rookies need to contribute right away -- "There's no waiting around in this game today."
Raanan presents some of the best and worst seasons by a rookie wide receiver in the past decade as well as what a statistically average rookie season looks like during that time -- 41 catches, 565 yards, four touchdowns.
Then, Raanan throws out this possible stat line for Beckham in his final graph.
"But 50-something catches for 800-plus yards and four or five touchdowns? The Giants would likely sign for that right now from their rookie wide receiver," Raanan wrote.

Fantasy Analysis:

As I Giants fan, so would I. So would everyone else. Since 2004, only 18 rookie WRs have surpassed 800 yards. Fifteen have come up with 800 yards and at least 50 receptions. Granted, we have had multiple rookies reach those marks in the past few seasons -- Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins last year; T.Y. Hilton, Josh Gordon, and Justin Blackmon in 2012; A.J. Green and Julio Jones in 2011. But it's a fairly rare occurrence. Only two rookies have topped 1,000 yards since 2004, one of whom was Michael Clayton. Remember him?
Fifty catches and 800 yards should be seen as the extreme high end of what to expect from Beckham. He'll face competition for targets from a couple other young receivers trying to make a name for themselves in the league: Rueben Randle @RuebenRandle and Jerrel Jernigan @JJernigan12. Beckham is a great dynasty pick but a WR5 in re-draft leagues.

Jordan Raanan via Newark Star-Ledger

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