|By Larry Gold, Friday, September 12, 2014|
QB Andrew Luck - Stud (low risk)
UNLIMITED CEILING, MVP CANDIDATE. Andrew Luck enters his third year with more upside than any other QB. Luck finished 2013 outside the Top 10 in most relevant quarterback categories, but one must look beyond the numbers to grasp what awaits Luck. The former Stanford grad excelled in spite of injuries across the offense, leading his Colts to a division title with a porous offensive line and non-existent running attack (outside of two games where Donald Brown performed). Luck did his best Tom Brady impersonation and worked with a collection of young, unpolished receivers (along with TY Hilton) to maximize his success. The Colts upgraded their offensive line through the draft and signed free agent Hakeem Nicks. With Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen returning from injury and Trent Richardson likely more comfortable in the offense, the sky is the limit. Luck is currently the fourth QB off the board in most redraft leagues (with a 37.43 ADP), so you are already betting on a large statistical surge for Luck if you draft him. However, if you are comfortable sacrificing an elite WR or RB early in your draft to lock up a sure thing at QB, look no further than Luck.
World Championship Drafts: In dynasty, Luck is normally going QB2 overall (third round) behind only the great Aaron Rodgers. The expectations are high for this Colts QB.
RB Trent Richardson - Quality Backup
COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR CANDIDATE: No player has fantasy owners more perplexed coming into 2014 as much as Trent Richardson. The former Crimson Tide back (drafted No. 3 overall by the Cleveland Browns in 2012) came into the league as the consensus top rushing prospect in his draft class. In fact, at No. 3, he was the earliest running back to be selected in a draft since Reggie Bush went No. 2 in 2006. In fantasy drafts, Richardson was selected in the first round in nearly all leagues in both 2012 and 2013. Owners were punished with an underwhelming rookie year in 2012 and a far more dismal year in 2013 when Richardson was traded to the Colts for a first round draft pick only two weeks into the season. After two years in the NFL, Richardson has a 3.3 yards per carry average, which trumps his 16 total touchdowns and 2,200 total yards in the eyes of most fantasy players. The bar has been set so low that Richardson is currently the 20th RB off the board (58.25 ADP). Many are skeptical of the talk coming out of Indianapolis that consider Richardson to be a three-down weapon. It makes sense to have doubt considering the Colts continue to try and save face on a trade that (so far) has backfired. But, it can also be argued that Richardson was so shell-shocked by the trade that it took a season to adjust. A review of last year's game tape showcases a tentative Richardson behind the line of scrimmage. He simply lost confidence and strayed from what led him to be a top pick. The Colts are now saying that Richardson is back to his old self, relying on instincts rather than over-thinking his runs. As is often the case in fantasy, value can be found when you take a contrarian point of view. Richardson is a tremendous potential value if the Colts stay committed to him. With a void of sure thing running backs available, you can do worse than taking a shot on Richardson in the fifth round.
WR T.Y. Hilton - Solid/Safe Pick
T.Y. Hilton is not receiving nearly as much love as he should. Hilton evolved into a complete receiver in his second year. It helps that he has been able to work with Andrew Luck since Day 1, but Hilton displayed incredible maturity taking on the lead receiving role after Reggie Wayne went down with a season-ending injury last year. Even prior to that injury, Hilton wasn't too far behind Wayne in targets, meaning the natural transition to Hilton becoming the No. 1 sooner than later was already in motion. Hilton and Luck worked to improve their chemistry, most notably seen in big games during epic comebacks. Hilton recorded 612 yards receiving on 41 catches (58 targets) over his last five games (including an incredible 18-224-2 performance in the AFC Wild Card win over the Chiefs.) The knock on Hilton is that he has to share the ball with Wayne, Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Allen. Hilton is currently the 23rd receiver coming off the board. Look for the chemistry between Luck and Hilton to continually improve and for last year's target to reception ratio of 138:82 (60-percent catch rate) to rise. The Colts will march the ball up and down the field at will this year, meaning there will be plenty of stats to go around to all, with Hilton being the greatest beneficiary.
Editor's note: In five games last year, Hilton accounted for 670 yards. In two of those five games, he scored five TDs. In his other 11 games? He went for 413 yards and zero touchdowns. That is an average of about 38 yards per game. Many receivers struggle with huge swings in production, consistency and workload; however, Hilton is one of the more extreme cases in the NFL. Bench him the wrong week and you might miss 25-percent of his fantasy points for the season. This is something to keep in mind considering Luck's ability to spread the ball around to multiple playmakers.
WR Reggie Wayne - Over the Hill (decreased production)
DON'T CALL IT A COMEBACK: Reggie Wayne has been a poster child for consistency throughout his Hall of Fame-bound, 13 year career. In fact, his brutal ACL injury in Week 7 led to him missing games for the first time since 2001. At age 35, it's quite the challenge for Wayne to work his way back, but with his incredible work ethic and desire to succeed, how can you doubt him? Also working in his favor is the fact that the Colts' receiving group is incredibly deep, meaning Wayne no longer has to be the man. Wayne is currently the 42nd receiver coming off the board, with a 107.27 ADP (interestingly enough, approximately the same spot as his new teammate Hakeem Nicks is landing). Andrew Luck and Wayne's strong chemistry has been apparent from Day 1, meaning that even if Wayne is 75-percent of his old self, he can outperform that ADP. With that said, temper your expectations early in the season as Wayne shakes off the rust. Look for his stat line in the second half of the year to outpace his early season production.
WR Hakeem Nicks - Bye Week Fill-in
TAKE A CHANCE: Perhaps a change of scenery is just what Hakeem Nicks needed. His last two years with the New York Giants were filled with disappointment and injuries. Once hailed for having the potential to become one of the game's top receivers because of his size and route running skills, Nicks only scored three touchdowns in his last 28 games with the Giants. Many questioned Nicks' effort in 2013, after the Giants decided to reward Victor Cruz with a contract extension rather than Nicks. Whatever the case may be, Nicks failed to get in sync with Eli Manning all year. Now Nicks finds himself in a far better offense with talent surrounding him. Look for Nicks to work hard with Luck and carve himself a nice role. His ability to outperform his 106.74 ADP (nearly identical as Wayne) will be directly related to Wayne's ACL recovery. As your team's WR4, there is little to no risk taking a shot that Nicks gets back to his productivity from three years ago.
WR Da'Rick Rogers - Dynasty Only
Da'Rick Rogers had one highlight reel game in 2013 when T.Y. Hilton was slowed with an injury. He was otherwise unimpressive, despite being on the field quite a bit late in the year. Rogers is fighting for a roster spot and will struggle to see the field much, if he even makes the team.
WR LaVon Brazill - Not Draft Worthy
LaVon Brazill started to fill up the stat line down the stretch in 2013. He recorded two multi-touchdown games: one in the regular season and one in the AFC Divisional playoff game vs. the New England Patriots. Andrew Luck targeted Brazill 13 times in two playoff games. While that would normally be enough to label Brazill a sleeper coming into this year, the Colts are set at receiver. Short of a long-term injury to someone ahead of him on the depth chart, Brazill will not be targeted enough to be fantasy relevant.
WR Donte Moncrief - Dynasty Only
DYNASTY HOLD AND WAIT: Donte Moncrief is certainly a player to consider for dynasty leagues, but will not be consistent enough or on the field regularly for redraft owners. Moncrief has terrific size and outstanding acceleration off the line. Look for the Colts to put in a few packages for Moncrief to run deep (similar to how TY Hilton was used in 2012).
TE Dwayne Allen - Sleeper (undervalued)
Of all the players on the Colts, Dwayne Allen has the greatest potential to crush his current ADP. Currently drafted around pick No. 157, Allen is falling to the 13th round and is approximately the 19th tight end off the board. Allen had an impressive rookie year in 2012 with a 45/521/3 stat line and was set to flourish in 2013 before a foot and hip injury sidelined him after a touchdown catch in Week 1. While Coby Fleener was serviceable in his absence, Allen is the obvious top tight end on the team because of his excellent run blocking and tremendous red zone abilities. As Colts' general manager Ryan Grigson puts it, Allen is "a beast." Look for Allen to be a potential Top 10 tight end in 2014.
TE Coby Fleener - Bust (overvalued)
With Dwayne Allen's early season injury in 2013, Coby Fleener was given a tremendous opportunity to have a breakout year. Fleener was mediocre at best, as he didn't scare any defenses and certainly didn't breakout (even though he was Luck's most familiar weapon dating back to their days at Stanford). The majority of his targets were on short routes right off the line of scrimmage. Fleener struggled with drops on longer patterns. With Allen now back and ready to again seize the starter's role he won in 2012, Fleener only has value as Allen insurance.
PK Adam Vinatieri - Quality Backup
At 41, Adam Vinatieri keeps on kicking. He has made 83-percent of his career field goal attempts and in 2013, Vinatieri hit career highs in both attempts (40) and makes (35). Given that the Colts are expected to find the end zone regularly, it is unlikely that Vinatieri can reach those marks again. Still, all those extra points and occasional field goals will add up. Vinatieri could be a fringe starter, but may be best suited to come off the waiver wire as a bye week replacement.
Indianapolis - Deep-league Only
The Colts' defense is a curious unit to consider. Last year, the Colts ranked ninth in points allowed and 20th in yards allowed. They forced the fifth-most fumbles and were 11th in sacks. Those stats alone put them on the bubble for being a matchup-based start. If Indianapolis has a weakness on defense, it is at safety. They brought in Mike Adams from the Denver Broncos in an attempt to upgrade the position. The Colts are in arguably the weakest division and have a clear path to winning the division for the second-straight season. The defense will be playing with a lead often, particularly against their division foes (all of which have uncertainty at QB), so you can expect some aggressive game plans, particularly at home. At best, the Colts are a backup; however, they have a long way to go to build up their defensive front.