Kansas City Chiefs
|By Shawn Childs, Sunday, December 6, 2015|
The Chiefs have played well over the last two years with Andy Reid as the head coach. They have gone 20-12 with one playoff berth. Last yea,r Kansas City showed growth in their defense. They allowed the second-lowest amount of points (281) in the league while allowing the seventh-lowest amount of total yards (330.5 YPG), which was 17 slots higher than 2013. Their offense finished only league average in points scored (353). They have ranked below 20th in the league in total yards (318.8 in 2014 – 25th) in eight of the last nine years. The Chiefs have outscored their opponents by 197 points over the last two years, which a huge step up from the previous six years (-688 points). Reid is 150-105 in his career as a head coach with 10 playoff experiences over his 16 year career. Doug Pederson returns for his third season as the offensive coordinator. Doug has nine years of experience playing in the league as player and six years working under Reid at various positions. Bob Sutton returns to run the defense, a position he has held over the last two years. Prior to 2013, Sutton spent 13 seasons on the Jets' coaching staff with three seasons as the defensive coordinator.
The biggest changes in the offseason for Kansas City were on the offensive line. The Chiefs signed G Ben Grubbs, who is a former first round draft pick in 2009. Grubb delivered a slightly below league average year in 2014 after being asset in his career in both run- and pass-blocking. They also brought in G Paul Fanaika. Fanaika was one of the worst linemen in the league in 2014 with huge negative value in all areas in the game. Paul will compete for a backup job. 2014 starting C Rodney Hudson left to play with the Raiders. Hudson played well in both run and pass blocking while showing growth in each season after being selected in the second round in 2012. G Mike McGlynn left to play for the Saints roster after delivering two straight horrendous seasons. They also released T Ryan Harris who has been a below average player over the last two years.
WR Jeremy Maclin was the best offseason move for the Chiefs this spring. He'll give Kansas City a legit WR1 with big-play ability. He'll replace WR Dwayne Bowe who left to play with the Browns. WR A.J. Jenkins was brought in for WR depth.
Kansas City lost S Kurt Coleman and CB Chris Owens from their secondary. Coleman played well in pass coverage as a backup player (eight catches in 16 passes defended for 76 yards with no TDs and three INTs. Owen allowed a 64.9 percent completion rate for 462 yards and four TDs as a part time player in 2014.
The Chiefs focused on their second and third levels of their defense with four of their first six picks in this year's draft. Kansas City drafted CB Marcus Peters with the 18th pick overall and CB Steven Nelson on the third round. Peters has the all-around skill set to start in his first year in the NFL, but he needs to prove he is mentally ready to handle the stresses that come with playing at the next level. Marcus will have value in press coverage, but he may lack the speed to stay with elite burners on deep plays. Nelson has risk in man coverage while offering support in the run game. His best value will come with safety support over the top. Steven competes hard, but he needs to prove he can handle the step up in competition.
In the fourth and the fifth round, the Chiefs added LB Ramik Wilson and LB D.J. Alexander. Wilson will have the most value in a defense with a strong defensive line where he can roam free to attack the line scrimmage. Alexander has elite speed for his position with solid tackling skills and value in pass coverage. Both players will compete for backup jobs.
With their second pick, Kansas City selected G Mitch Morse. Morse has plus strength with some quickness and a solid feel for the game. He'll offer upside in both run and pass blocking and the talk on the street has Mitch developing into an asset at the center position.
WR Chris Conley was picked in the third round. He has elite speed (4.35 forty) with solid strength and size (6'2" and 213 lbs.). Chris has a good feel for running routes, but lacks elite quickness which leads to him struggling to get separation at the line of scrimmage against press coverage. Conley has some questions about his hands and he needs to establish he can work in the middle of the field.
With their second pick in the 5th round, the Chiefs drafted TE James O'Shaughnessy. James is a pass-catching TE with enough speed to make big plays down the middle of the field. He needs to add more strength to earn more playing time. O'Shaughnessy will need time to develop and is very firmly behind TE Travis Kelce on the depth chart.
DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches will have value attacking the line of scrimmage with his quickness, but he tends to mediocre after contact with no real plan of attack other than creating havoc. Rakeem plays hard, but he needs to add more strength to gain playing time.
With their last pick, Kansas City decided on WR Da'Ron Brown. He has solid hands with speed and strength, but his technique is well below par. His lack of acceleration will lead to him being a low-level backup in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs CB Marcus Peters
The Chiefs finished 10th in rushing yards (1,918 yards) while averaging 4.6 yards per rush with 18 rushing TDs.
LT Eric Fisher was selected with the first pick overall in the 2013 draft. He's allowed 14 sacks, 16 QB hits, and 59 QB hurries in his two years in the league with below par value in run blocking. Fisher has the pedigree, but he still has a lot of work to do.
LG Ben Grubbs will be an upgrade for sure at this position. He's only allowed seven sacks over the last three years, which was helped by the quick decision making by QB Drew Brees. Ben is expected to upgrade the run game as well. Grubbs is a former first round draft pick.
C Eric Kush will compete with rookie C Mitch Moore for the starting job at the center position. Kush was only on the field for 73 plays in his rookie season in 2013 after being drafted in the sixth round. Last year he didn't play in any game. His scouting report suggests he has upside, but he has a lot to prove. Moore will be transition to the center position so it may take him some time to become NFL ready.
RG Jeff Allen was selected in the second round in 2012. His season ended after Week 1 due to an elbow injury that required surgery. In his two seasons as the starter at left guard, Allen has been a poor run and pass blocker.
RT Donald Stephenson missed the first seven games of 2014 after being suspended for four games due failing a drug test. In the two previous years, Stephenson was a below average-pass blocker with limited value in run blocking.
Last year Kansas City only attempted 30.8 passes per game, which was at least 10-percent lower than the league average. Even with low pass attempts (493), their offensive line allowed 49 sacks (7th). The Chiefs were 29th in the league in passing yards (3,182) with 18 TDs and six INTs.
This line has as much risk as reward. The upside is the left side of the line if Fisher makes a huge step forward. Teams are going to attack the right side of the line. The high upside by RB Jamaal Charles somewhat masked their weakness in run blocking. Overall, this line is below average with their biggest area concern is pass blocking.
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing TDs touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing TDs (TDS).
This information is based on 2014, which will work as our starting point for 2015. We'll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We'll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
2014 Average: The league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2014.
2014 Results: This is the results for each team in the NFL.
2015 Adjustment: Based on the 2014 league average and the 2014 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat and the basis for strength of schedule.
The Chiefs have four tough matchups against the run – DET, BAL, and DEN (X 2). The Lions game will be much easier with DE Ndamukong Suh no longer on the roster. Kansas City only has what I would call a premium matchup in the run game – Cleveland. They have eight below average matchups against the pass. The Bears and the Ravens look to be the best matchups against the pass, but Baltimore should be much better against the pass with healthier CBs.
Kansas City ran the ball 46-percent of the time in 2014. They completed 29.7-percent of their passes to the RBs and 30 percent to TEs. This led to one of the weakest WRs opportunities in the league (40.3-percent). WRs ended up catching only 129 passes for 1,589 yards with no passing TDs.
QB Alex Smith - Bye Week Fill-in
Week 14 DFS Update (12/13): Smith has fewer than 300 yards passing in each game in 2015, with only two games with three combined TDs. Alex He hasn't thrown an interception since Week 3, while attempting 27.7 passes per game in his last six starts. In Week 11 he threw for 253 yards and no TDs vs. the Chargers. San Diego ranks 12th in the NFL in QB Fantasy defense. Receivers gain 8.1 yards per attempt with 19 passing TDs. His passing upside is tied to the Chargers success on the scoreboard, which looks bleak at this point of the year.
Week 13 DFS Update (12/3): Smith hasn't attempted over 32 passes in his last five games, which limits his upside. He has two passing TDs or fewer in his last nine games. He is a very good game manager with his last Int coming in Week 3. Last season Smith threw for 531 yards and four TDs in two games vs. the Raiders. Oakland allows 295 passing yards per game with 19 passing TDs. Sneaky matchup with two solid passing options if he ever needed to throw the ball.
Smith is a solid game manager with some upside with better weapons at the WR position. Last year, he had the worst WR corps in the league and one of the weakest pass-blocking lines in the NFL. Alex was sacked 49 times with no TDs to a WR all season. Somehow he completed a career high 65.3 percent of his passes (full season). Over his last three games of the year, Smith threw for 901 yards with three TDs. He only had two games with three TDs in 2014. He's been sacked 39 times or more in three of his last four years. Alex has never passed for more than 3,400 yards in any season with his career-high in passing TDs being 23 in 2013. Over the last two years with Kansas City he has rushed for 785 yards with two TDs. His offensive line will still have weakness and his WR corps gets an uptick with Maclin added. Smith is a boring, low upside QB who plays for a team that prefers to run the ball, which is more of a result of below-par WRs. Alex now has three playmakers (Charles, Macklin, and Kelce). Smith only has matchup value in 2015 as a backup QB.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Alex Smith
RB Knile Davis - Fantasy Handcuff
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WR Jeremy Maclin - Solid/Safe Pick
Week 14 DFS Update (12/13): Maclin has looked elite again in his last two games (9/160/1 and 9/95/2) with a huge catch rate (85.7). This just screams throw me the damn ball. On the year he has three 100-yard receiving games and five TDs, with only 8.5 targets per game. In Week 11 he had three catches for 29 yards on six targets vs. the Chargers. San Diego is 5th in the league in WR Fantasy defense, with 11 teams scoring fewer than 35 Fantasy points from the WR position. The Chargers have plenty of risk vs. the run, which hurts Maclin in this game especially with the Chiefs' defense now playing at high level.
Week 13 DFS Update (12/5): The Chiefs neglected Maclin over his previous four games (3/48, 3/35/1, 3/17, and 3/29) with only 21 targets. Last week though he exploded for 160 yards on nine catches and a TD vs. the Bills, which just shows his elite ability when given a chance for success. He has three 100-yard receiving games and three TDs with 8.4 targets per game. Oakland is just below league average in Fantasy WR defense, with only five TDs allowed to WRs. Over the last three games WRs only have 24 catches for 322 yards and one TD. Kansas City should try to get him matchuped with the Raiders' weakest CB Neiko Thorpe. Hit or miss player with impact upside if given enough chances.
Maclin is coming off his best season in his career when he set career highs in catches (85), receiving yards (1,318) and targets (141). His success was even more exciting considering that he missed all of the 2013 season with a torn ACL. Last year, he had four 100-yard receiving games, seven games with five catches or more, and seven games with 10 targets or more. His value did take a hit when Mark Sanchez took over at QB in Week 9. Jeremy has scored 35 TDs in 75 career games. Last season was Maclin's first real opportunity to be a WR1 and this will be repeated with the Chiefs. The question will be the level of involvement in the passing game. Kansas City only completed 129 passes for 1,589 yards with no TDs to WRs in 2014. I expect Maclin to command at least 55 percent of this production, which will be about a 70-catch opportunity for about 1,000 yards and a half dozen TDs. This projects to be a backend WR2 in PPR leagues. Game score will lead to him having many highs and low.
Kansas City Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin
WR Chris Conley - Dynasty Only
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WR De'Anthony Thomas - Dynasty Only
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WR Albert Wilson - Dynasty Only
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WR Jason Avant - Not Draft Worthy
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TE Travis Kelce - Stud (low risk)
Week 14 DFS Update (12/13): Kelce has scored a TD in three straight games, but two of those TDs didn't end up counting. Last week the Chiefs only threw to him three times, which led to two catches for 42 yards. Kelce has four TDs and one 100-yard receiving game, with 6.8 targets per game. In Week 11 he had five catches for 46 yards on seven targets against the Chargers. San Diego allows the 7th-most Fantasy points to TEs, with two teams scoring 30 Fantasy points or more in PPR leagues. Game score points to more runs in this game, which hurts Kelce.
Week 13 DFS Update (12/5): Kelce is another player who tends to underachieve his projections. Last week Fantasy owners probably faded him due to his questionable tag while dealing with an ankle issue. He finished with four catches, 69 yards and a TD on seven targets. He averages 7.1 targets per game, with four TDs and one impact game (6/106/2). In 2014 Kelce had nine catches for 126 yards and a TD on 11 targets in two games against the Raiders. Oakland is 30th in the NFL in TE Fantasy defense, with five teams scoring over 20 Fantasy points from the TE position. TEs have 11 TDs vs. the Raiders. Solid matchup with TD upside, but he really needs more targets to deliver an impactful score.
Despite only starting 11 games, Kelce finished as the No. 1 option in the passing game for QB Alex Smith. Travis caught 67 passes for 862 yards with five TDs on 87 targets. He caught 77-percent of his chances, which is a strong sign going forward. Kelce was expected to add speed to the tight end position for the Chiefs in 2013, but he suffered a knee injury in mid-August, which led to a minor surgery in early October. Kansas City put him on the IR and he finished 2013 with only one active appearance on the roster. Travis didn't play one down that year. Kelce showed some upside in his last season at Cincinnati in college when he caught 45 passes for 722 yards and eight TDs. Kansas City ended up completing 96 passes for 1,110 yards with eight TDs to their TEs in 2014. Kelce should be in position to grab a bigger piece of the pie with TE Anthony Fasano no longer on the roster. I expect Kelce to lead the team in catches and I see a solid 80-catch year with an outside shot at 1,000 yards receiving and about seven TDs. Travis has a chance to be a top three TE in 2015.
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
PK Cairo Santos - Not Draft Worthy
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Kansas City - Solid/Safe Pick
Kansas City will face seven teams with weak rushing defenses with most of those games coming over the second half of the year. Their two toughest games against the run are Houston and Cincinnati. They have three bad matchups against the pass – PIT and DEN (X 2) and seven games against teams with below average passing attacks.
The Chiefs finished 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed (2,036), but they only allowed four rushing TDs. Kansas City allowed 4.7 yards per rush.
Their best player by a wide margin is LB Justin Houston. He was a beast in the pass rush (23 sacks, eight QB hits, and 56 QB hurries) while adding solid value in run support. LB Tamba Hali added value in the pass rush (six sacks, seven QB hits, and 31 QB hurries), but his success was well below his best years in the NFL. Hali was only a neutral run stopper. LB Derrick Johnson missed most of 2014 with torn Achilles. He is expected be ready for the start of the season. Johnson was selected in the first round in 2005 so he is at the end of his career. His best asset is pass coverage. The last linebacker slot is up for grabs with LB James-Michael Johnson and LB Josh Mauga playing poorly in 2014. The Chief also have the services of 2014 first round draft pick LB Dee Ford who had minimal value off the bench last year. His best skill is rushing the QB.
2012 first round draft pick NT Dontari Poe had a career high seven sacks in 2014, but he faded badly against the run after showing promise in this area in the previous year. DE Jaye Howard was unimpressive in his first season as a starter. DE Mike Devito also saw his 2014 season end after one game due an Achilles injury. Devito's only asset is stopping the run.
CB Sean Smith was one of the top cover cornerbacks in the league in 2014. Receivers caught 49 of 86 targets for 597 yards with three TDs and one INT. His success was a huge step up from his previous couple of seasons. Rookie CB Marcus Peters is expected to win the other starting job at corner. Peters has cover skills, but NFL QBs will test his weakness in his first season. His game will improve with more experience, but he will allow a couple of long TDs. Both starting safeties are no more than league average.
Last year, Kansas City had 46 sacks while allowing the second lowest amount of passing yards (3,252) in the league. Receivers only gained 6.4 yards per catch with 22 passing TDs allowed and six INTs.
This defense is loaded with talent at linebacker with four first round draft picks on the roster. Unfortunately, two of those players are at the end of their careers. Their defensive line doesn't look like an edge and the Chiefs have one strong CB. A plus pass rush with help the risk in pass coverage. If the Chiefs' run defense improved and their offense did a better job scoring points, this defense would have a lot more upside when offenses become one dimensional. Kansas City will attack the QB and they flashed scoring ability on defense over the last two years. They need someone to step up and become a playmaker in the secondary to help increase the Ints production. This defense has top-10 value.