San Francisco 49ers
|By Shawn Childs, Sunday, December 6, 2015|
After three straight strong seasons in which they compiled a 36-11-1 record, the 49ers faded to the .500 mark and missed the playoffs last season. Their defense finished among the top five in fewest yards allowed for the fourth straight year, but they fell to 10th in points allowed (340). Jim Harbaugh had a great run as the head coach (44-19-1). He achieved three playoff berths and one trip to the Super Bowl. With some dissention in the ranks, Harbaugh was sent packing in December. Jim Tomsula was promoted to head coach after spending the past eight seasons teaching the team's defensive line. Geep Chryst was promoted from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator. Geep has been with San Fran for the past four years. The 49ers have ranked 20th or worse in total offense three times in the last four seasons. Besides ranking 20th in yards gained, the 49ers also ended up 25th in points scored last year. Eric Mangini takes over as the defensive coordinator after coaching the 49ers' tight ends in 2013 and 2014. Eric had two failed runs as a head coach, going 33-47 across five seasons spent between the New York Jets and the Cleveland Browns. The 49ers have won five Super Bowl titles and have made the playoffs 26 times in the team's 67-year history. They have the fifth-best winning percentage all time (.557) and the sixth-most wins (553).
San Fran's offensive line lost three starters. Tackle Anthony Davis decided to retire at age 25. He was a 2010 first-round pick. Davis was at his best in 2012 when he was impact run blocker, but he did allow nine sacks, five QB hits and 31 QB hurries. Last year, Davis missed nine games due to a sprained knee ligament. Guard Mike Iupati signed with the Arizona Cardinals. Iupati had upside in run blocking with some struggles as a pass blocker. Tackle Jonathan Martin left to play for the Carolina Panthers. He had losing value as a run blocker while allowing six sacks, one QB hits and 11 QB hurries. Guard Erik Pears was brought it for depth on the offensive line. Pears had no value in any area in 2014 with the Buffalo Bills.
The 49ers also lost Linebacker Patrick Willis, defensive end Justin Smith and linebacker Chris Borland to retirement. Smith was at the end of his career at age 35 with his game showing decline in 2014. Willis has been fighting a losing battle with a toe issue over the last couple of years. Borland, after an outstanding rookie season, was fearful of concussion issues going forward. Defensive end Darnell Dockett, who missed the entire 2014 season due to an ACL tear, was signed to help fill the voids.
Cornerback Perrish Cox signed with the Tennessee Titans. At best, Cox was a league-average player last season. CB Chris Culliver will collect his next check from the Washington Redskins. Chris played well in pass coverage in his first season as a full-time starter. Shareece Wright was brought in to compete for the starting CB job. Wright has been a failure over the past two years in pass coverage. He allowed 41 catches on 71 targets for 532 yards and three touchdowns last year.
Wide receiver Michael Crabtree left to play with the Oakland Raiders after the 49ers added WR Torrey Smith. Crabtree failed to deliver on his elite upside after being drafted in the first round in 2009. Smith will add big-play ability to the passing game and has developing value at the goal line. Running back Frank Gore decided his best chance for success was with the Indianapolis Colts. San Fran took a flier on RB Reggie Bush with the hopes that he'll be another receiving option for Colin Kaepernick. WR Jerome Simpson was also signed while backup wideout Stevie Johnson will try to revive his career with the San Diego Chargers.
Amid an offseason full of change on defense, the 49ers selected three defensive players with their first three picks – defensive tackle Arik Armstead, safety Jaquiski Tartt and linebacker Eli Harold. Armstead has the skill set to be an impact player across the board once he refines his moves as a pass rusher. Arik has power and a plus first step to disrupt at the point of attack. Tartt will add a physical presence to the secondary. He is a solid tackler and has upside against the run. He can sometimes get frozen in coverage on play-action plays. Harold has the skill set to be an upside pass rusher. He plays with power and speed.
In the fourth round, San Fran drafted tight end Blake Bell. He has limited experience at the TE position, but his game has shown high upside. He needs to improve his route-running skills, reaction time and get a better feel for the game. His blocking improved last year, which will be key to his playing time. Blake will need some time to develop.
RB Mike Davis and WR DeAndre Smelter were also selected in the fourth round. Davis has some qualities similar with the departed Gore. He runs hard between the tackles with power while lacking breakaway speed. Mike may add value on third downs with a chance to hold his own in pass protection. He just needs to show more commitment to the game. Smelter has plus size (6 feet 2, 226 pounds) and stellar athleticism. The Georgia Tech product has a short resume of football experience and tore an ACL in December. Smelter could have impact upside in a couple of years.
Punter Bradley Pinion was drafted in the fifth round.
San Fran added two offensive linemen in the final two rounds -- guards Ian Silberman and Trenton Brown. Silberman plays with strength but has limited range due to his slow foot speed. He may need to add more bulk to earn snaps at the next level. Ian will have risk in pass protection. Brown has all the tools to develop into an NFL starter. He plays with power and also has some questions about his foot speed. He is a project.
With their final pick, the 49ers selected TE Rory Anderson. Rory struggled with some injuries in his college career while flashing plus speed and athletic ability. He looks the part as a receiver and has shown value as a blocker, but he needs to add more bulk. Also, his hands can be inconsistent.
San Francisco 49ers DT Arik Armstead
The 49ers finished fourth in rushing yards (2,176) while averaging 4.6 yards per rush with 10 rushing TDs. San Fran allowed 52 sacks last year, which is pretty amazing when you consider they have a running QB. The 49ers finished 30th in passing yards (3,063) with 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Left tackle Joe Staley has played at a high level in his career. He'll offer value in the run and the pass. Last year, Joe allowed four sacks, three QB hits and 22 QB hurries.
Left guard Brandon Thomas tore an ACL during a pre-draft workout in 2014, which led to him falling to the third round. Thomas played left tackle at Clemson. His game should work well at guard. Despite his limited power, he is a very good pass protector.
Center Marcus Martin has been unimpressive in his three years in the league after being selected in the second round in 2012. Martin has allowed 19 sacks and has below-average value as a run blocker. He can also play guard.
Right guard Daniel Kilgore will probably battle Pears for this job. Kilgore suffered a broken leg last year and may move back to center if he can't hold his own here. He made seven starts at center in 2014, showing value as a run blocker with no sacks allowed.
RT Alex Boone was an elite run blocker in 2012 while allowing four sacks. His game faded in 2013 where he was a liability as a pass blocker and provided only a slight edge in run blocking. Last year, Alex allowed three sacks and provided average value as a run blocker while playing guard. He has been moved to tackle following Anthony Davis' retirement. Pears is a candidate for this job as well.
This line has a lot to prove in 2015. It has one elite player and risk at the center position. They need to find a way to keep their QB upright. They could struggle in run blocking.
The above chart shows the 49ers' 2015 offensive strength of schedule in terms of rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA) and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2014 stats, which we will work with as our starting point for 2015. We'll look at all the changes on offense for each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades each team has made on the defensive side. We'll update this table when we finish researching all 32 teams.
2014 Average: The league average of each stat from all 32 teams in 2014.
2014 Results: The results for each specific team in the NFL.
2015 Adjustment: The difference between a team's result and the league average in a certain statistic. This number will show if a team is above or below the league average in each stat and will serve as the basis for the strength of schedule.
San Francisco's offense has three tough games versus the run: the Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks (twice). The Detroit Lions should also still be decent against the run. San Fran also gets to face the Cincinnati Bengals' and the New York Giants' poor run defenses. Even with two meeting versus the Seahawks, the 49ers' passing game has a slightly favorable schedule with nine games that grade above the league average.
The 49ers ran the ball 49.1 percent of the time, and their RBs gained 1,524 yards on 365 carries (4.2 YPC) with nine rushing TDs. The RB position caught only 15.1 percent of all completions (44 catches for 379 yards and three TDs). TEs saw only 13.4 percent of the action. Their wide receivers caught 209 passes for 2,595 yards and 14 touchdowns.
QB Blaine Gabbert - Low Potential
Week 14 DFS Update (12/12): Gabbert wants to keep a starting job in the NFL and he's done a nice job in his last three games (six TDs and one 300-yard passing game). His legs have also added to his value (140 yards on 19 carries). The Browns allow the seventh-most Fantasy points to QBs, with two teams scoring over 30 Fantasy points. Cleveland allows 8.2 yards per pass attempt with 25 passing TDs. Sneaky value play possibly with Torrey Smith.
Week 13 DFS Update (12/3): Head scouting director Jeff Dawson at East Coast Sports Investors has liked what he has seen from Gabbert over his three starts. He throws a nice ball with some mobility. He is a former first round pick with an Alex Smith feel to him. Gabbert has faced three of the top 11 pass defenses in the league. He has one 300-yard passing game with four TDs. QBs have fewer than 20 Fantasy points in eight of their last nine games, which has helped move Chicago to 12th in the league in QB Fantasy defense.
UPDATE (11/17): As horrific as Gabbert is, he was still awarded the starting job thanks to the incomprehensible ineptitude of Colin Kaepernick. In a stunning turn of events, the 49ers actually won with him under center, with little thanks to him of course. Despite being named the starter until further notice, he has little to no Fantasy value. We fully anticipate Gabbert falling flat on his face in the very near future.
RB Mike Davis - Dynasty Only
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WR Anquan Boldin - Over the Hill (decreased production)
Week 14 DFS Update (12/12): Boldin had 24 targets in his last two games, which gives him a reasonable chance of delivering upside if he scores. Over the last three games he has 18 catches for 223 yards on 31 targets with Gabbert under center. Boldin has two 100-yard receiving games with two TDs, He averages 8.5 targets per game. The Browns rank 24th in the league in WR Fantasy defense, with 15 TDs allowed to WRs. Not ideal, but he has enough of an opportunity to score 20+ Fantasy points if he scores a TD.
Week 13 DFS Update (12/5): Boldin has looked pretty good in the last two games (5/93 and 8/93) with 18 targets. Anquan has two 100-yard receiving games and two TDs, while averaging eight targets per game. In 2014, he caught two of six targets for 34 yards against the Bears. Chicago has climbed to 12th in the NFL in WR Fantasy defense with 15 TDs allowed to WRs (two in the last four games). Not ideal, but he may get enough looks to surprise as this price point.
Boldin was the saving grace for the 49ers' passing game in 2014. He claimed his seventh season with 1,000 yards and his seventh year with more than 80 catches. Over the past two years, at ages 33 and 34, Anquan has caught 168 passes for 2,241 yards and 12 TDs. Last season, he had just one game with at least 100 yards and saw double-digit targets three times. Boldin caught six passes or more in eight games. He is currently ranked 15th all time in catches (940) and 19th in receiving yards (12,406). In the early draft season, Anquan has an ADP of 97 (39th WR selected), which is quite a bargain when you consider that he was a top-20 WR in PPR leagues in each of the past two campaigns. However, the last time Boldin posted consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, he followed them up with three relatively subpar years. For me, he's a tough buy even at a discount due to his age and my 'rule of three,' which states to avoid owning a player who is coming off of two solid years due to the likelihood of regression.
San Francisco 49ers WR Anquan Boldin
WR Torrey Smith - Quality Backup
Week 14 DFS Update (12/12): Smith only has nine catches for 206 yards and a TD on 19 targets in his last six games. Last week he was worthless again until he scored a late 71-yard TD. On the year, he is averaging only 3.7 targets per game with a poor catch rate (52.2). He has one 100-yard receiving game and three TDs. Last season he caught six of 15 targets for 108 yards and a TD in two games vs. the Browns. This week he is listed as questionable with issues with his back and toe. Cleveland has risk in the secondary and the 49ers have a bounce in their step after a big win in Chicago last week. Smith does have 33 TDs in 76 games played in the NFL so he may surprise if he plays.
When you look at Smith's 2014 stats, most Fantasy owners will see decline in his game. He set or matched career lows with 767 yards, 49 catches and 92 targets. But his lack of success was more the result of playcalling. And he still scored 11 touchdowns. That intrigues me, because the 49ers will able to use him in the red zone to beat one-on-one coverage. With the Ravens in 2014, Torrey had six games with two catches or fewer and seven games with six targets or fewer. He was held to fewer than 100 yards in every game. Torrey has just a 49.1 percent career catch rate since most of his targets come deep downfield. The poor play of the 49ers' offensive line is a concern as Kaepernick may not have enough time to get the ball to Torrey deep. I like his growth in scoring ability, and Smith can always take the top off of a defense. But his success will be limited by the low number of pass plays San Fran calls. Last year, Michael Crabtree had 68 catches, 698 yards and four TDs on 108 targets in what I would consider a down year. I expect Smith to see 120-plus targets, which will led to about 60 catches, 900 yards and 6-8 scores. Torrey should be drafted as a WR3 with boom-or-bust risk.
WR Quinton Patton - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)
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WR Bruce Ellington - Not Draft Worthy
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TE Vernon Davis - Solid/Safe Pick
It was just amazing to see Davis come up empty week after week in 2014 after a handful of very successful seasons. He finished with only 26 catches on 59 targets for 245 yards and two TDs. Vernon averaged only 9.4 yards per catch, which was 3.5 yards below his career average. After Week 1, Vernon didn't score and gained fewer than 40 yards in each of his next 13 games. Davis suffered an ankle injury in mid-September and a back issue in early October. In his career, Vernon has 55 TDs in 131 games and has wrapped up two seasons with 13 touchdowns. He'll never see a ton of targets (averaging 5.2 per game in his career). His upside is created by his big-play ability; he averaged 16.3 yards per catch in 2010 and 2013). He has five 50-catch seasons on his resume and four years with more than 750 yards. Last season was a throwaway year due to injuries and poor play from San Fran's offense. Davis should be line for at least 55 catches, 700 yards and 5-7 scores. He is a complete steal in the early draft season; his ADP of 181 makes him the the 24th TE off the board. I expect Davis to finish 2015 as a top-12 tight end.
San Francisco 49ers TE Vernon Davis
PK Phil Dawson - Quality Backup
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San Francisco - Quality Backup
The 49ers have five games against teams with weak rushing attacks: the Cardinals (twice), Bears, Lions and Atlanta Falcons. I believe four of those games will be tougher than expected. They have two bad matchups against the Seahawks' ground game, and the Bengals should run the ball well in 2015. San Fran's defense has four tough games versus the pass: the Falcons, Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers. They have seven games versus below-par passing attacks: the Seahawks (twice), Cardinals (twice), Browns, Bengals and Vikings.
San Fran allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards last season (1,612). Opposing rushers gained 4.0 YPC with only seven rushing TDs. San Francisco managed only 36 sacks due to multiple injuries to their defense. They allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards (3,541) with 29 TDs and 23 INTs.
The 49ers will have three new starters on their defensive line in 2015. DE Arik Armstead could move right into the starting lineup after being selected 17th overall in this year's draft. Arik has upside as a pass rusher and the ability to disrupt the run game. However, he is very raw athlete who still needs to improve his pass-rushing techniques and vision. Nose tackle Ian Williams played pretty well in eight starts last year before a broken leg ended his season. He was primarily used a run stopper with no real upside in the pass rush. DE Darnell Dockett missed the 2014 season with a torn ACL in his right knee. Darnell has downside risk against the run and, at age 34, is declining as a pass rusher. Dockett is expected to be ready for the start of the season.
Linebacker Aaron Lynch was a neutral run defender in his rookie season. However, he had six sacks, eight QB hits and 27 QB hurries. LB Michael Wilhoite was unimpressive in his first season with starter snaps after being signed as an undrafted free agent in 2011. He struggled against the run and didn't do much as a pass rusher. LB Philip Wheeler has a strong NFL resume despite struggling in 2014 with the Miami Dolphins. Wheeler has a chance to deliver league-average value if he earns a starting job in place of the retire Chris Borland. LB NaVorro Bowman missed the 2014 season due to a torn ACL in his left knee. When healthy, he offers upside in all areas of the game. LB Aldon Smith was suspended for the first 10 games last season. He was only slightly above average once he returned to the lineup, but he's an elite pass rusher. From 2011-13, he recorded 50 sacks, 48 QB hits and 130 QB hurries. Smith will also add value to the run defense.
CB Tramaine Brock dealt with toe and hamstring issues last year. He saw action in just three games after playing in every game in each of the two previous seasons. in 2013, Tramaine allowed 59 catches on 103 targets for 787 yards and six TDs with five INTs. Shareece Wright is expected to start at the other CB position after playing poorly in 2014 with the Chargers (41 catches for 532 yards and three TDs on 71 pass attempts). Safety Antoine Bethea is coming off his best season in pass coverage (24 catches on 41 targets for 303 yards and one touchdown with four interceptions). Safety Eric Reid has been a league-average defender through his two seasons.
This defense still has two studs at the linebacker position and two other first-rounders in their starting lineup. The defensive line may have risk against the run, and there are some big shoes to fill at linebacker without Willis and Borland. The secondary will only be as good as the passing window allowed by the pass rush. This defense will have an edge against second-tier offenses with mediocre QB play, but a top passing team will take advantage of its attacking style. I don't expect this defense to finish as a top-12 Fantasy option.