|By Shawn Childs, Saturday, September 2, 2017|
After a disastrous season in 2015 (4-12) due to poor play at quarterback after the injury to Tony Romo, America's team rebounded in a big way last year (13-3) thanks to two impact rookie players (Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott). The offense scored 146 more points than 2015 (275) leading to the fifth-highest total in the league. The Cowboys also finished 5th in offensive yards, which was an improvement of 17 spots in the league rankings. Jason Garrett saved his job in 2016 with the help of his players. Garrett returns for a seventh season as head coach with a 58-46 record and two playoff appearance. Scott Linehan will run the offensive coordinator after strong rebound in 2016. Over three years as a head coach in the NFL, Scott went 11-25 with the Rams. He has 18 seasons of experience as an offensive coordinator. Ron Marinelli returns as the defensive coordinator for the fourth straight year. Ron's defense has been about league average in yards allowed over the last three seasons (2014 – 19th, 2015 – 17th, and 2016 – 14th) with a nice step forward in points allowed (306 – 5th). He failed in his chance at being a head coach in the NFL (10-38).
The Cowboys will need to revamp their secondary this year after losing CB Brandon Carr, CB Morris Claiborne, S Barry Church, and S J.J. Wilcox. Both Claiborne and Church played at a high level while Carr finished with about league average success. Wilcox had part-time snaps off the bench. The only upgrades in free agency to offset losses were CB Nolan Carroll and S Robert Blanton. Carroll is a downgrade for sure while projecting to be a third option at corner. Blanton did play well in 2014 for the Vikings, but his game has faded in the last two years while battling an ankle issue in 2016.
Also, Dallas lost three low-level options off the defensive line – DT Terrell McCain, DE Jack Crawford, and DE Ryan Davis.
Their biggest loss on offense was T Ronald Leary. He played at a high level in 2016, but his supporting cast did cover up some of his weakness. Leary was only covering La'el Collins who has stud upside.
The Cowboys moved on from RB Lance Dunbar, TE Gavin Escobar, and QB Mark Sanchez. QB Tony Romo found it more secure in the press box and retired.
T Byron Bell was added for depth on the line after missing the 2016 season with an ankle injury. DT Stephen Paea has a chance to be a neutral player in a rotational role. The Cowboys hope to rekindle Damontre Moore after dealing with injuries over each of the last three seasons. Moore played in 16 games at age 21 with the Giants in 2014 as a third round draft pick leading to a career-best 5.5 sacks
The secondary was on the minds of the Cowboys' leaders on draft day. They invested four of their first six picks to stop the pass – CB Chidobe Awuzie (2nd), CB Jourdan Lewis (3rd), S Xavier Woods (6th), and CB Marquez White (6th). Awuzie should be a nice addition. He has the movements and vision to handle WRs over the short areas of the field and plays well in coverage with a fluid transition out of his backpedal. He gets into trouble in run supports and when asked to play deep one-on-one coverage. He does his job more than he makes impact plays on the ball. Lewis is an undersized (5'10" and 188 lbs.) playmaker with more quickness than top end speed. He will have the most success against second tier WRs. He can play in press coverage, but he needs to cheat (hold) to maintain an edge. Woods is a playmaker when he plays deep in coverage where his game has the most value. He'll add value against the run while still needing to improve his tackling skills. He offers the most value going forward with some questions about his change of direction ability. White comes up short in speed and change of direction ability while holding his value when working off the line of scrimmage facing the QB. White lacks playmaking ability with risk in tackling.
In the first round, Dallas added DE Taco Charlton. His talent in college outweighed his production, which will come with more bulk and strength added. Taco needs to add an edge to his game to create more success against power defenders. Charlton has the quickness and physical attributes to offer upside rushing the quarterback while expecting to control his area of the field against the run.
WR Ryan Switzer was the selection in the fourth round. Possession type WR with value in the return game. His lack of size (5'8" and 181 lbs.) does limit his upside. Switzer has plus quickness, which is geared to work the short areas of the field while lacking throttle to gain an edge in the deep passing game even with 4.5 speed. He's projected to be the insurance policy for Cole Beasley.
With a trio of picks in the seventh round, the Cowboys drafted DT Joey Ivie, WR Noah Brown, and DT Jordan Carrell. Ivie looks to be an early down run option with a solid motor. His quickness and power don't create enough separation to win many plays on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Brown is a project at WR with a short resume of experience and opportunity. Noah has a solid combination of size (6'2" and 222 lbs.) with upside in his hands, but his route running is well below the needed level to have success at the next level. Carrell looks to be a tweener. His game projects better on the inside, but he needs more bulk and strength. He will be an early down player against the run with limited value rushing the QB.
Dallas has a great offensive line, which led to them finishing second in the NFL in rushing yards (2,396) with the second most rushing TDs (24). They had 17 runs over 20 yards, 72 rushes over 10 yards and 38 negative carries.
The Cowboys only attempted 30.2 passes per game (30th) while finishing 23rd in the league in passing yards (3,631) with 25 passing TDs and only six Ints. Their offensive line allowed 28 sacks (5.8 percent of the time).
LT Tyron Smith is a solid anchor on the offensive line after getting drafted ninth overall in 2011. He signed a massive $109 million contract in 2014 for eight seasons. Last year he offered an edge in all areas, but he missed three games with a right knee and a back injury. Smith is a top player at his position and an even higher bar if healthy.
LG Nate Theaker will battle multiple other options for a starting job after Collins was shifted to right tackle. Theaker was signed as an undrafted free agent this season. Overall, the options at this position are well below league average with the eventual winner developing as the season goes on.
C Travis Frederick is a great player at his position with high value in all areas. Dallas selected him in the second round in 2013. Over the last two years, Travis has been the best center in the league.
RG Zack Martin has been a beast in pass protection while offering even more value in the run game. Martin is a third player on this line that graded as an edge in all areas with three-plus seasons on his resume since being selected 16th overall in the 2014 NFL Draft.
RT La'el Collins will move from left guard to right tackle in 2017. His season ended after three games with a toe injury that required surgery. Collins moved into the starting lineup Week 7 of the 2015 season after the Cowboys signed him as an undrafted free agent. Collins was expected to be a first-round talent, but his value plummeted just before the draft due to speculation that he was somehow tied to his ex-girlfriend's death. His game has upside in all areas even with a short resume of success over two seasons in the NFL.
With a great RB and a QB who makes good decisions in the passing game and with his legs, Dallas has a high ceiling offensively when pairing with four strong options on the offensive line. This group grades as one of the best in the league with one huge question mark at left guard.
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing TDs touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing TDs (TDS).
This information is based on 2016, which will work as our starting point for 2017. We'll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We'll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
2016 LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2016.
2016 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL last year.
2016 Adjustment is based on the 2016 league average and the 2016 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Dallas faces eight teams with league average success against the run with the Giants (2) and Arizona being the toughest matchups. The only defense with high risk defending the run game in 2016 was the 49ers followed by the Broncos, who I expect to be better in 2017.
The Cowboys face six teams with strength defending the passing game with the Broncos being a very bad matchup. The Falcons and the Packers are the two matchups offering the most upside in the passing game.
Dallas ran the ball 50.6 percent of the time. They had success throwing the ball even with short passing attempts. This team will run the ball with an elite running back, and Dak Prescott will chip in on the ground.
The Cowboys' defense has five games (DEN. LAR, LAC, and NYG X 2) vs. teams who struggled to run the ball in 2016. They only play one team that rushed the ball well last year, which was the 49ers and they were helped by the QB position.
Dallas has three matchups (ATL and WAS X 2) against teams that threw the ball at a high level in 2016 plus three other games (SEA, GB, and ARI) vs. teams who have upside in the passing game. They face two opponents (LAR and SF) that struggled to throw the ball last year.
This defense led the NFL in rushing yards allowed (1,336), which was helped by a league low in rushing attempts per game (21.2). They allowed nine rushing TDs and six runs over 20 yards. Ball carriers gained 3.9 yards per rush.
The Cowboys finished 26th in passing yards allowed (4,167) with 25 TDs and nine Ints. They gave up only 6.9 yards pass attempt with 36 sacks.
The biggest question mark on this defense after the free agents lost in the offseason comes in the secondary. Dallas hopes to have the services of Orlando Scandrick who missed four games in 2016 with a hamstring injury. He's been an asset in coverage over the last three years. The second CB position will come from the two rookies drafted this year (Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis) and second-year player Anthony Brown who finished as a neutral player after getting drafted in the sixth round. Brown has elite speed (4.35 forty at the 2016 NFL combine) with an edge in strength. Anthony has upside in pass coverage with his best success coming in a trailing position. His transition on his backpedal isn't strong enough leading to big mistakes potential TD and holding penalties. With improvement in his technique, Brown will earn valuable snaps shortly (proved to be the case in 2016). S Byron Jones played great in his second year in the league after getting drafted in the first round in 2015. Jones had 88 tackles, ten defended passes, and an Int. He projects as an asset in all areas. The best option at the other safety spot may be incoming rookie Xavier Woods.
DT Stephen Paea is a low-upside option on early downs against the run. He had a career-high six sacks in 2014 with the Bears, but only eight sacks in his other 63 games played in his career. DT Maliek Collins has the chance to be a special player at the next level when he adds more strength and improves his technique. For his size (6'2" and 311 lbs.), Maliek has exceptional quickness to create an edge after the snap. His desire to attack does lead to him being out of position at times. His build points to an inside position on the defensive line, but Collins would prefer to attack from the outside. In his rookie season, Maliek had five sacks with rotational snaps. DE DeMarcus Lawrence missed seven games in 2016 due to a back injury after the season. His game looked to over upside in 2015 (55 tackles and eight sacks). DE Tyrone Crawford is only a neutral player at best. He has 12.5 sacks over his last 45 games.
LB Sean Lee grades as an edge thanks to a massive tackle total (145) in 2016. He only has 2.5 sacks in his 75 games career with some upside in pass coverage. LB Jaylon Smith missed the 2016 season due to a bad knee injury that came in January of 2016. A year and a half later, Smith still isn't 100 percent. Jaylon is an undersized linebacker (6'2" and 223 lbs.) with impact speed and quickness to add value in covering the whole field in the running game, attacking the QB, and in pass coverage. LB Anthony Hitchens will man the inside linebacker position until Smith can play at a high level. Anthony has 220 tackles over the last three years with minimal value in sacks (3.5). LB Damien Wilson was only on the field for 284 plays in 2016. He'll be needed on the outside to start the year while offering no real upside.
This defense was helped last year by a ball controlled offense that kept the defense off the field. The secondary has some talent, but it will be a work in progress this year. A better pass rush would help cover some of the deficiencies in coverage. The second level of the defense has one plus player while Jaylon Smith may turn into an asset down the road. This bodes well for the offensive players on the Cowboys as this defense will grade well below the league average and the rush defense is going to have regression.
QB Dak Prescott - Solid/Safe Pick
Update 12/29/17Prescott lost his way four times over his last six games leading to nine Ints and no passing TDs in those games. Dak has fewer than 200 yards passing in five of his last seven games with one impact game (@NYG - 332/3) over this span. His worst game of the year came against the Eagles' defense (145 yards with three Ints). This week the Eagles will rest some of their players, which will help the value of Prescott in this matchup. His lack of big play ability (21 completions over 21 yards) continues to limit his upside. Dak is battling his WR1 on and off the field, so I'd leave this club in the bag.
RB Ezekiel Elliott - Stud (low risk)
Update 12/29/17The Cowboys' coaching staff really screwed the pooch last week. They didn't give their best player a chance to make a play at the goal line with just under eight minutes to go in the game with their playoff hopes on the line. Ezekiel finished with 118 combined yards on 28 touches while receiving four catches. Dallas had him on the field for 68 of 76 plays. The Eagles are very good against the run (3.7 yards per rush) and the Cowboys have left tackle issues (21 sacks in their last seven game compared to 11 sacks in their first eight games). The Eagles will rest most of their starters in this game with the number one seed already locked up. High volume player with scoring ability, but the Cowboys’ offense is following in the right direction. Ezekiel has a solid floor with at least on TD likely.
RB Darren McFadden - Fantasy Handcuff
Update 11/03/17If Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t play this week, McFadden will be the top choice to play on passing downs. Darren doesn't have a snap in 2017, which is a sign of his low upside this week. On the year, the Cowboys' RBs have 24 catches for 252 yards and two TDs on 33 targets. The Chiefs do play well vs. RBs in the passing game (32/201 on 50 targets). Tough start with a chance to be third RB options off the bench behind Alfred Morris and Rod Smith.
RB Alfred Morris - Not Draft Worthy
Update 12/09/17Morris gave Dallas an Elliott-type game in Week 13 (27/127/1). Over the last four games, Alfred has 64 touches for 307 yards with a TD. Last week he was on the field for a season high 36 plays last week, which was 52.9 percent of the plays run by Dallas. The Giants are 21st in the league defending RBs (1,977 combined yards with nine TDs and 58 catches). RBs have over 100 yards rushing in 11 of their 12 games in 2017 due to game score and over 30 rushes per game. In Week 1, New York allowed 141 combined yards to the Cowboys. Possible follow through, but he does have some playing time risk if game score goes in the wrong direction.
WR Ryan Switzer - Dynasty Only
Over four seasons at North Carolina, Switzer caught 243 passes for 2903 yards and 19 TDs highlighted by a productive senior year (96/1112/6). His game is built around short area quickness while needing to build more strength. This season he'll be the top backup for Cole Beasley.
WR Dez Bryant - Stud (low risk)
Update 12/29/17Bryant now has three straight failed season on his resume after shining from 2012 to 2014 (92/1382/2, 93/1233/13, and 88/1320/16). Dez has fewer than 75 yards receiving 11 straight games with short targets in his last five starts (5, 7, 5, 4, and 6). On the year, he averages 8.3 targets per game with a weak catch rate (53.2). The Eagles held him to eight catches for 63 yards on 14 targets in Week 11. Philly will rest some of the starters in this matchup, but it's hard to believe the Bryant light bulb will click on in Week 17. He needs a change in scenery to revive his career. Dez is listed as questionable for this week’s game with a knee issue.
WR Cole Beasley - Deep-league Only
Update 11/10/17Beasley hasn't had the same opportunity in 2017 as he did last year (75/833/5). He's on pace for only 44 catches for 330 yards and eight TDs on 74 targets. Cole was a matchup problem in Week 9 at the goal line for the Chiefs leading to four catches for 24 yards and two TDs on six targets. Slot CB Brian Poole is an above the league average player. Possible growth in chances if Dez Bryant can’t go this week.
WR Terrance Williams - Low Potential
Update 11/10/17Williams caught all nine of his targets in Week 9 for 141 yards. Over his previous four games, Terrance only had eight catches for 84 yards on 15 targets. He doesn't have a TD in 2017 while averaging 4.5 targets per game. The injury to Dez Bryant may lead to another solid week of targets. He lines up on CB Desmond Trufant's side of the field on most plays, which is a poor matchup. Need more info, but his lack of resume does hurt his value in this matchup
TE Jason Witten - Over the Hill (decreased production)
Update 12/29/17Witten was a little more active in the last two games (4/47 and 5/39 on 14 combined targets), but he still hasn't scored over 15 Fantasy points in PPR league since Week 7 (4/54/1). Over his last 13 games, Jason has six games with only one catch including his matchup against the Eagles (1/7). Philly is about league average against TEs, but they will sit some of their starters at some point in this game. Witten has a great NFL career, but the end is near.
PK Dan Bailey - Stud (low risk)
This guy is one of the best kickers in the game. He's made 89.5 percent of his career chances (171-for-191) with excellent success from 50 yards or longer (24-for-35). Dan averaged over six attempts from long range over the last five years. Also, Bailey hasn't missed an extra point try in his career, which is impressive considering the NFL moved the kicker line back in 2015. As great as he is, he's only had over 32 field goal chances once (2011 - 37). Dallas scored over 45 extra points in three of the last four years. Love his leg, but the Cowboys will score TDs in close limiting his chance to make field goals. My kind of kicker as I hate when my kicker misses.