Derek Carr, QB, Raiders: Fantasy Football Outlook

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Derek Carr, QB, Raiders

Position/Rank ADP NFL Team Status Experience Age Height Weight
QB - #11 OAK Active 2 years 25 6'3 215

2015 Outlook: Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)

Last updated on Dec-13-2015 by Shawn Childs


Week 14 DFS Update (12/13): Carr threw more Ints (3) than TDs (2) in Week 13 with respectable yards (283), but he was well off the pace with so many high scores coming from the QB position. With one bad game (169 yards) in his last seven games, he has averaged 306 passing yards. On the year, Carr has 26 passing TDs in 11 full games. In Week 5 he threw for 249 yards and a TD vs. the Broncos. Denver has the No.1 QB Fantasy defense in the league, with 10 teams scoring fewer than 20 Fantasy points.

Week 13 DFS Update (12/3): If you throw out his short game in Week 1, Carr is real close to being a top five QB in 2015. After his disaster game vs. the Lions (169 yards and no TDs), he threw for 330 yards and three TDs vs. the Titans. He has over 300 yards passing in four of his last five starts and six in 10 full games played in 2015. Carr has three TDs or more in five games. Last year in two games vs. the Chiefs, he threw for 396 yards with two TDs. Kansas City had their second worst game defending the QB in Week 12 (337 combined yards and three TDs), which ended their five week run of holding the QB to 15 Fantasy points or less. The Raiders have talent at WR and Carr is willing to use his 3rd and 4th option in the passing game. As well as he has played, he looks more like an against the grain play with limited upside.

Update (11/25): Carr has been a breakout star in his second NFL season and has developed into a Fantasy QB1. To this point in his sophomore campaign he has 2,565 yards and an extremely impressive TD-to-INT ratio of 21-to-6. If he continues at this rate he has the potential to be a breakout player of the year candidate. He is a solid play this season and a must-own in dynasty leagues. Carr appears to be a star in the making.

I had mixed emotions when I watched some tape on Carr in 2014. He showed a strong, accurate arm when he was able to step into his throws, but he tends to put too much air under his downfield passes, especially when he throws off his back foot, which leads to jump balls and turnovers. Derek has decent speed (4.69 40-yard dash at the combine), but he gained only 190 yards on 164 carries in college. His quickness is just average and he needs to add some bulk. Fresno State used him primarily out of the shotgun, which led to him throwing for 5,083 yards in his senior year with 50 TDs and eight INTs. For his career, he passed for 12,843 yards with 113 TDs and 24 INTs. He is a hard worker with great character and good smarts. Carr went 3-13 as a full-time starter for the Raiders in 2014. He showed patience but averaged only 5.5 yards per play because of his lack of weapons and poor pass protection. His quick release limited his number of sacks taken to just 24. Derek threw for 3,270 yards and 21 TDs with 12 interceptions. However, he had no value as a runner; he gained fewer than 100 yards rushing on 29 carries. He had only one 300-yard game and two performances with three TDs or more. This year, he'll have two WRs with high upside and catching ability. This will allow Carr to post much stronger stat lines. The defense will force the Raiders to come from behind often, so Derek will probably put up 600 or so attempts. He will throw for 4,000 yards this year if he gets his yards-per-attempt average to the 6.8 range. That's not asking for much; 27 teams beat that number in 2014. Carr has a very good chance of being a top-15 QB if he throws at least 27 TDs. Derek will be an undervalued backup in Fantasy drafts.

Oakland Raiders QB Derek Carr

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