Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: Fantasy Football Outlook

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Tom Brady, QB, Patriots

Position/Rank ADP NFL Team Status Experience Age Height Weight
QB - #9 106.16 NE Active 16 years 38 6'4 225

2015 Outlook: Solid/Safe Pick

Last updated on Dec-13-2015 by Shawn Childs


Week 14 DFS Update (12/13): The Brady beat goes on for another week even with less weapons. He threw for over 300 yards (312) for the seventh time this year with four combined TDs. Over this last three weeks, Brady has seen his completion rate fall below 55.0 percent in each game. This is well below his first eight games of the year (69.0). The Texans rank about league average in QB Fantasy defense, with three teams scoring over 30 Fantasy points. On the year, QBs have passing TDs while gaining 6.9 yards per rush. His decline in completion rate, loss of Gronk, and high price point would push me in another direction.

Week 13 DFS Update (12/3): Brady maintained his edge as the top QB in the league vs. a tough Broncos' pass defense with 280 yards and three TDs. He has over 25 Fantasy points in eight of his 11 games played. He is on a pace for 5,236 passing yards with 44 combined TDs. The Eagles have been ripped up in back-to-back games in the passing game (583 yards and 10 TDs). Brady lost another weapon (Gronk) so his upside can't be as high as it once was. Favorable matchup, but he will be a low percentage own due to his price point and the injuries in the receiving corps.

UPDATE (Nov. 11): Tom Brady is having yet another excellent season. He's been a reliable QB1 and for those fortunate enough to draft him have been able to count on him every week. The return of Brandon LaFell will only further bolster this passing offense.

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In his career 207 starts, Brady has a 160-47 record. He has the third-most wins in league history, trailing only Peyton Manning (179) and Brett Favre (186). His .773 winning percentage is the NFL's all-time best. A big part of Tom's 2014 success should be credited to improved pass protection. He was sacked just 21 times last year as opposed to 40 times in 2013. This led to a bounce back in his completion rate (64.1) after he approached his career low in 2013 (60.5 percent). He threw more than 30 TDs for the fifth time in his last seven full seasons. His passing yards total has regressed in each of the past three years. Brady's biggest asset is his ability to minimize mistakes. Last year, he threw fewer than 10 interceptions for the fourth time in his last seven complete seasons. He finished the season as fantasy's No. 9 QB.

When you look at his receiving options, Brady has an obviously huge edge at tight end with Rob Gronkowski, and Julian Edelman is one of the top possession receivers in the league. WR Brandon LaFell is coming off the best season of his five-year career and showed some value in the end zone. A healthy Aaron Dobson would be a nice bonus for New England. Plus, Danny Amendola played his best ball in the playoffs. On the surface, Tom has below-average receiving options out of the backfield, but the Patriots have a long history of winning with less than elite talent at the skill positions. The AFC East is getting a lot tougher on the defensive line, which will force the Patriots to throw the ball more than 600 times in 2015. Although he may be suspended for the season's first four games as punishment for his role in Deflategate, pending an appeal, Tom has a reasonable schedule late in the year when fantasy championships are on the line. The suspension, which may be reduced, could turn Brady into a value draft pick who can buoy your team down the stretch.

New England Patriots QB Tom Brady

2015 Mock Draft Results

Month Position Franchise/Comments
Expert Mock
August 5th, 2015
11.11 Team Rozek - Brady will miss the first 4 games but he's worth the risk this late in the draft. (Comments Added Mon Aug 3 11:28:27 p.m. ET 2015)
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